There are no signs Russia is about to collapse.

Imminently, no. And it doesn't need to collapse outright.

It just needs to become sufficiently clear to whomever is currently gearing up to take over after Putin croaks/fades in a few years -- that its projected general condition (as affects their own wealth and comfort) for the next 10-20 years or so will start to look very blighted indeed, if it doesn't rapidly change course on its optional (and very, very costly) neocolonial project.