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hunglee2 5 hours ago

Yet despite these problems, the F-35 remains the most commercially successful airframe in the world, with over 670 sold, and 2,500 on order from US-allied countries all over the world. What could explain this sales pipeline, if the F-35 was the boondoggle this article implies it to be?

orwin 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

For the first sales (Australia and either Norway or sweden, i dont remember), the US and lockheed Martin hid away the issues and lied on operating cost and availability.

For sales to NATO: you have to buy a plane that can carry the US bomb if you don't have one yourself (despite the fact that nukes will probably never be launched from aircrafts if at all).

For sales against competition, i don't have a lot of data, but you can check the Swiss 2022 competition between the F16, F18, Rafale, Gripen and F35, public data is scarce but basically, the Rafale and F18 would have been better on most points except VTOL and stealth. The choice however was probably economic (as while VTOL is nice, Swiss short airports are still longer than carriers, and stealth isn't that much of a factor in defense, especially in the Alps): they bought planes for less than half the price NATO countries did, and 60% of the money will be spent locally: basically 20% of the cost Germany and other NATO countries paid.

lloeki 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> despite the fact that nukes will probably never be launched from aircrafts if at all

"if at all": that's deterrence. I don't think any nuke-able aircraft small-country customer intent is to launch, but you gotta have the ability to.

"from aircrafts": when you have no submarines/silos and carting ground launch platforms around is impractical for your country, aircraft is the only remaining option to display deterrence factors.

orwin 3 hours ago | parent [-]

If the US need Belgium planes to launch nukes, well, europe is truly fucked anyway.

If the US had the French doctrine i.e. any army moving toward France's strategic assets will be targeted with a "warning" shot (yes, the warning shot is to be nuclear), but it does not, US nuclear force is for retaliation only. It will never be launched from planes in the foreseeable future. Which is more than the operational lifetime of F35.

No, this is bully tactics and frankly i really, really hope that Trump dissolve NATO so Belgium don't have to buy planes that can fly 30% of the time.

unwind 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Norway for sure, they have been in NATO since they helped found it in 1949. Us Swedes needed a while to think about it, and joined on March 7, 2024. Sweden does not have the F-35, since we build our own [1] multi-role military aircraft.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen

rjsw 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Typhoon would have been a good fit for Canada but the US vetoed it.

toyg 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The F-35 has never been one of the "most commercially successful airframes". 670 sold is actually a pretty low number, considering its supposedly multi-role capabilities and its rare VTOL feature.

The sales pipeline started being agreed when the plane was still a concept, and it's almost exclusively a feature of American foreign policy: the US government worked hard, over almost 40 years, to ensure a significant part of design and production costs (and risks resulting from such) would be absorbed by allies through guaranteed sales. NATO countries have been under huge continuous and sustained pressure to buy it and to standardize their systems around it. Quite a few European governments found themselves struggling to publicly justify their choices in this matter, because in the end it mostly boiled down to "the Americans told us to buy it or else". The F-35 project simply would not be allowed to fail in the market.

As far as I know, no other weapon ever enjoyed such massive and forceful support by so many US administrations throughout the decades.

alfiedotwtf an hour ago | parent [-]

> the US government worked hard, over almost 40 years, to ensure a significant part of design and production costs (and risks resulting from such) would be absorbed by allies through guaranteed sales. NATO countries have been under huge continuous and sustained pressure to buy it and to standardize their systems around it. Quite a few European governments found themselves struggling to publicly justify their choices in this matter, because in the end it mostly boiled down to "the Americans told us to buy it or else".

So, it’s SAP but for national defence

mrtksn 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> What could explain this sales pipeline, if the F-35 was the boondoggle this article implies it to be?

Easy, desire to please American politicians to fetch political support from the USA and strengthen your position as military ally. Ideally, you will be looking so scary that you wouldn’t have to actually use the plane.

fsloth 3 hours ago | parent [-]

” you will be looking so scary that you wouldn’t have to actually use the plane.”

I’d say this is the main intent. But not only because of the political aspects.

AFAIK the plane is intended to be used like an ultra-mobile target aquisition and launch platform designed to engage targets Really Far Away and then return to base (any base since it’s NATO compatible). It’s not really supposed to engage in Top Gun -style dogfighting.

So the main question is the capability of the radar and the missiles you carry, not necessarily the air frame itself. And as I understand those are fit for purpose.

Ofc if you are launching missiles far away for defensive purposes surely you could do it a lot cheaper, and that I would see as the main point of critique.

I’m not saying the issues are not issues, but as a non-expert-paying-customer (my country bought 64 of them I think) as long as you get airborn, acquire target lock and can launch missile, you are more or less using the offering as promised.

ossobuco 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> What could explain this sales pipeline, if the F-35 was the boondoggle this article implies it to be?

The overwhelming USA sphere of influence over its "allies". I don't really see a NATO member buying new fighter jets from China or Russia instead without that causing a big ruckus.

dotancohen 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Sweden sells a really nice NATO-compatible multirole jet.

euler_angles an hour ago | parent [-]

The Gripen is not a dual-capable aircraft, meaning it isn't certified to carry nuclear weapons. This makes it a tough sell to NATO nations who must align themselves to NATO's strategic goals [0], which call for nations to contribute dual-capable aircraft. Nor is the Gripen independent from US supply chains. It uses the General Electric F414-GE-39E engine.

If you're a NATO nation looking for a non-US jet that can satisfy your dual-capable needs, your only option is the Rafale.

[0] https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pd...

dotancohen 28 minutes ago | parent [-]

  > The Gripen is not a dual-capable aircraft
I did not realize that, thank you. I simply assumed that with the bomber role came the ability to carry a small (<500 pound) tactical nuke. Is this more of a certification issue or an actual hardware issue?
4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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KoftaBob 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The US isn't the only NATO member that produces fighter jets. EU members of NATO make the Eurofighter Typhoon, the Dassault Rafale, and the Saab JAS 39 Gripen.

MaxPock 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You buy F-35s to protect yourself from the mafia .

4 hours ago | parent [-]
[deleted]
rsynnott 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There's often a certain aspect of "no-one ever got fired for buying IBM" to these sorts of things.

aeonik 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

4,600 F16s have been built, obviously it has the time advantage, but still, once F35 beats that number, I think it will be at the top.

sofixa 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It's the most modern jet that can be acquired. The Gripen, Rafale, Typhoon are all very good jets, but they're around half a generation behind; they're still popular and acquired by various countries because they better fit their requirements (or because the US doesn't want to sell them F-35).

invalidname 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The article is sensational and deeply misleading.

Yes, the plane has a lot of bugs. It's got complicated software and hardware. You can't compare it to the relatively simple older designs that didn't deal with stealth.

Yes they don't need to test dogfights because war isn't a video game. When the enemy sees the f35 it is after it already sent the missile in your direction. You don't need to dogfight if you're an invisible ghost that can kill from a distance.

The f16 had a ton of bugs such as flipping over when south of the equator. It's a much better machine now and the f35 has all the makings to be a similar leap forward.

nosianu 4 hours ago | parent [-]

> The f16 had a ton of bugs such as flipping over when south of the equator.

In the simulator - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4541685

The page that comment links to lists some (minor) problems found on the real plane too though.

InDubioProRubio 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Its basically a arcade-chip tradeable for us-protection within the western worldorder.

alfiedotwtf an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> What could explain this sales pipeline

Let’s not beat around the bush. Protection money

imwillofficial 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Unfortunately we do not measure combat weapons in terms of commercial success.

We measure them in terms of lethality and reliability.

fyt2024 3 hours ago | parent [-]

[dead]

LargoLasskhyfv an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The same, or similar 'mechanisms' which enabled https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_bribery_scandals ?

formerly_proven 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> the boondoggle this article implies it to be?

I highly recommend reading contemporary reporting on what are considered wildly successful aircraft (like the teen series F-14/15/16).

Hint: Just change one number and they're indistinguishable from reporting on the F-35.

red-iron-pine an hour ago | parent [-]

the F-14 was an expensive hanger queen and was retired rapidly. the F-16 is still seeing use and was rotated out years after the F-14.

but yeah all fighters have bugs, often a lot of them

DocTomoe 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Is it? The 737 has been sold 12000 times, with thousands of orders in the pipeline. The A320 is not far behind, but only got introduced twenty years later

Even if you just consider military airframes, the MiG-21 has been built 11000 times, and is/was used by more than 50 operators world-wide, all of which have paid for the privilege.

Then there's the C-130, with 2500 units produced and operated by 70 countries.

The first American Fighter jet would be the F-4 Phantom II, with 5000 units built, and used extensively abroad.

The F-16 has 4600 units built up to now and is used by more than 25 countries.

(I'm ignoring the P-51 with its 15000 units here because they were mostly used by the US and rarely sold abroad).

tl;dr: The F-35 is not the most commercially successful airframe in the world, in fact, it does not even come close.

aa-jv 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>What could explain this sales pipeline, if the F-35 was the boondoggle this article implies it to be?

A lack of actual proven fight-testing.

euler_angles 2 hours ago | parent [-]

But it did the most extensive flight test program for anything in history [0]. I worked on this program for years. I do not think a lack of flight testing is the problem. The problems are many, but in short:

1) Lack of competent, forceful oversight from the program office. DOT&E reports about the F-35 program have, for years, given the program office recommendations that it has failed to follow.

2) A prime contractor (Lockheed-Martin) that restricts access to its data. The F-35 program had to sue LM in federal court to get access to the necessary data to make the Joint Simulation Environment (JSE) fully functional. In the end, the case was settled, but only after six years of battle. The report linked in the parent article describes how maintainers are not allowed access to servicing procedures that they have on other aircraft. I have seen this personally in flight test. Even something like a gear swing requires an LM certified Field Services Engineer to conduct.

3) A completely broken software release process. For many years in developmental flight test, we received software builds that were just entirely broken, as in, the jet would not start with that software loaded. The C2D2 process was advertised as fixing this, but really it was just a new name for the same old fly-fix-fly process. The parent report details entire versions that were skipped in the IOT&E process because they were so buggy. The program could have turned JSE into the final stop for new software builds before hitting the fleet, but it chose to pivot entirely into training instead.

I could keep going. A decade working in a program like this gives you a long list of things to talk about. But I'll stop here for now.

[0] https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2018-04-12-F-35-Completes-Mo...

belter 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Microsoft enters the room....