| ▲ | baxtr 7 days ago | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I learned something important early in my career: the first number you put out will be remembered. Unfortunately it’s often true. People keep saying: "but didn’t you initially say X?" "Sure I did, but I have new knowledge" won't always work. A nasty side-effect is that people who are aware of this shy away from giving you numbers. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | floren 7 days ago | parent | next [-] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
> Kirk: Mr. Scott. Have you always multiplied your repair estimates by a factor of four? > Scotty: Certainly, sir. How else can I keep my reputation as a miracle worker? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▲ | vander_elst 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
My method is take an educated guess multiply by 2 add 1 as extra buffer and then change it to the next unit, e.g. day->week, week->month, months->quarter. So for something that it should take 1 day I'd say 3 weeks. It seems a lot but at the end there's usually so much red tape, burocracy and and technical debt that it usually ends in the latter ballpark. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▲ | darekkay 7 days ago | parent | prev [-] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
> the first number you put out will be remembered This is called anchoring effect, a psychological bias. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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