| ▲ | mk_stjames an hour ago |
| The Space Shuttle took 2 people into orbit on its first launch and returned them safely to earth. On the first attempt. On the first test of any of the hardware into space. In 1981. Starship did not and has not done that and until it does I will continue to hold reservations. I do not see this Starship and its mission profile ever being a human-rated system in this incarnation, ever. A really cheap way to launch mass into LEO? Sure, I'll give it that. |
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| ▲ | lacker 44 minutes ago | parent | next [-] |
| The shuttle had a 2/135 death rate. If Starship becomes the core infrastructure for Starlink, it'll be able to afford hundreds of launches before putting humans on it. You won't have to trust some theoretical calculations, you'll just be able to see in practice what the risk of a Starship launch is. |
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| ▲ | arzig 31 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Isn’t starship supposed to be integral to the Artemis project in say… a year. | | |
| ▲ | modeless 4 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Sure but it doesn't launch or land humans on Earth, which is the hardest part. |
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| ▲ | sterlind 39 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | dumb question, but at what point does the cost of fuel start to become an issue with such frequent launches? today I imagine launch cost is dominated by the price of the nonrecoverable parts, but fuel will become the floor no? | | |
| ▲ | GMoromisato 34 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Yes, but it's an order of magnitude difference. Today a Falcon 9 launch cost ~$20 million, mostly because they throw away the second stage. Propellant for a Falcon 9 launch is ~$500K. | | |
| ▲ | gorkish 5 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Starship is more efficient than F9 but in terms of multiple launches per day, the supply chain is indeed a factor. An hourly launch cadence is going to consume roughly as much natural gas as Houston. |
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| ▲ | gorkish 10 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | All back of envelope here just to get a rough order of magnitude: Starship needs 10kg (0.5mcf) of methane and 36kg of oxygen per kg to orbit. The oxygen takes 22kWh to liquefy or about (0.16mcf to generate that onsite). So 0.66mcf/kg to orbit and 66,000mcf from to fully fuel. That is the daily gas usage of a midisze city, say 200k population, per launch. |
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| ▲ | p-e-w 39 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | More importantly, those deaths were both caused by substantial design flaws, not by freak accidents. Bad things happen, and spaceflight is a hard problem. But that’s not what killed two Shuttle crews. |
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| ▲ | nsoonhui an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > I do not see this Starship and its mission profile ever being a human-rated system in this incarnation, ever. May I know why ? And if the feat was done by NASA or China, would you change your conclusion? |
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| ▲ | echoangle an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | The system architecture seems to be more fragile than simple capsules with parachutes or even the shuttle (which was already pretty dangerous). There’s no parachute, if you don’t hit the tower during landing you’re in a lot of trouble (unless they can soft-land the ship without the tower and without the bottom exploding?). | | |
| ▲ | xixixao an hour ago | parent [-] | | “the system is more complicated” is not a good argument for it never working. A passenger airliner is vastly more complicated than a parachute, yet both work. (You’re also in a lot of trouble if you don’t hit the runway in an airliner) | | |
| ▲ | echoangle an hour ago | parent [-] | | The problem isn’t “it’s more complicated” but more “if something goes wrong there’s not a lot you can do”. There’s basically no redundancy and a lot of single points of failure. Having two sets of Parachutes is a lot harder to screw up than a powered landing. With a normal capsule, you have multiple fuel tanks and redundant RCS thrusters so you’ll practically always be able to deorbit and land (since you also have redundant parachutes). If starship has a fuel leak, how are you going to land, even if you’re able to deorbit? |
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| ▲ | Retric an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Starship’s been in development for over two decades and the design keeps being changed and failing. Soyuz has a very impressive record, Starship has been horrifically mismanaged by comparison. The falcon heavy flew 14 times and SpaceX is all in on a heavy launch vehicle because what? Even if they hit every target perfectly from now on it was a wasteful project. | | |
| ▲ | xixixao an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | The design changing and the development _failing to meet its stated deadlines_ is not a good argument for the system never working. Especially given we know the deadlines were unrealistic to begin with, yet significant milestones have been achieved in (deadline-ignoring) impressive time frame - like landing a second stage rocket from orbit within 8 years of development (by a private company, not a national effort). | |
| ▲ | DarmokJalad1701 41 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Starship’s been in development for over two decades What? The first version of something that looks anything like Starship was the ITS announced back in 2016, later "BFR" in 2017 and the stainless steel version (which is now flying) in December 2018. Eight years is very reasonable for a fully reusable heavy lift system - something no one has built before. The Space Shuttle took roughly 12.5 years from formal concept studies to its first flight (and 9 years from official program approval) | |
| ▲ | bluescrn an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Falcon 9 had numerous landing failures early on. They're averaging over 2 successful launches+landings per week now, and it's so routine that nobody cares. |
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| ▲ | mk_stjames an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | It would not change my conclusion at all. If you asked me if I wanted to return to earth on something that glides like a plane and lands on a runway with no propulsion... or a pressure vessel that needs it's engines to work perfectly to get you back to a single spot at the pad, within a few meters, to be 'caught', and if that doesn't happen, you hit the ground vertically and explode... I know which one I'm taking. Yes I know the shuttle had no 'go-around' as a glider. But wings and wheels and a big runway in the desert.... versus the insane acrobatics of Starship... We haven't seen how Starship would deal with crosswinds in the atmosphere being predicted wrong. What happens when it knows it is off course on the way down and can't make it back to the pad? If there were people onboard? I assume there would be a contingency where it just vents fuel and hits the ground and hopes to act as a crush-can at terminal velocity but I don't know how people survive that. By comparison, ditching the shuttle like a plane with an engine-out failure seems easy by comparison. I am not demeaning the amazing achievement of the Starship and its booster and this ability to catch it and reuse it. I think that is indeed an amazing achievement that should be celebrated. But I don't see this as being a thing to put people on that can somehow be intrinsically safer than the Shuttle, just yet. These are just my basic opinions, I think they are opinions with some merit, and I don't feel that deserves downvotes. | | |
| ▲ | piloto_ciego 40 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | I mean, I could see an option being a detachable landing pod for human missions. Or, more crazily, and I'm not sure of the dimensions but some space-plane like the Dream Chaser or whatever that could fit in the cargo bay then deorbit separately after it's done it's mission? There's a lot of ideas. And we're going to learn so much about how to do reusability now that we just didn't know before. But I would not be surprised if some cockamamie version of this wasn't human rated eventually. Obviously, we're a really long way away from that from a reliability standpoint? But you know, if they launch 10,000 of these over the next decade... we're going to know a lot more about the safety of this design. I'm sure they'll clobber one in to mechazilla eventually? But what if they don't? | |
| ▲ | emkoemko an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | that's not going to happen, Artemis is using Orion with parachutes to land in the ocean |
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| ▲ | GMoromisato an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Huh? Space shuttle killed 14 astronauts. It was a flawed design from the beginning and never delivered on its original promise. Starship has its own design trade-offs, as any engineered object does, but it has the benefit of 50 years of technological development since Shuttle. I'm not as certain as you about whether or not Starship will ever be human rated. But if successful, it will be launching a couple of hundred times per year. Talk to me in five years and we'll see where we are then. |
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| ▲ | lawsthro0532 8 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | The most damning thing I've seen on starship was a video that described how little space there is inside for the humans Elon said it would hold. Something like urban transit personal space. | |
| ▲ | cucumber3732842 an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | I don't think it makes sense to make starship human rated. They'd likely give up too much. Probably better to have a different cheaper rocket for the people. Like you don't build a barge to ferry standards, it would defeat the point of the barge. | | |
| ▲ | GMoromisato an hour ago | parent [-] | | Maybe you're right--I don't know. But large freight airplanes are the same as large passenger airplanes, except for the seats, etc. I think the same might be true for Starship. |
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| ▲ | LorenPechtel 41 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Safely?? The Challenger disaster could perfectly well have been avoided if they had been willing to look. There was a clear indication of substantial deviation from design and the joint could have been engineered to stay in compression during the twang. But Columbia was fundamental. There was an awful lot of insulation aerodynamically before the heat shield. Once again, multiple warnings, but keeping the insulation from being torn off while keeping the weight down was problematic. Columbia was the beginning of the end as they realized they couldn't sweep it under the rug anymore and they couldn't truly fix it. |
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| ▲ | georgemcbay 3 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | > The Challenger disaster could perfectly well have been avoided if they had been willing to look. The tragedy of Challenger is that Morton Thiokol engineers did look enough to know that the O-ring design was likely to fail under cold weather conditions. This was already a known issue and the engineers specifically recommended that Challenger postpone launch because of the temperature at the pad the night before the launch. They got overruled for political reasons (the big bosses didn't want to throw off the timing of the first class being taught in space). | |
| ▲ | Sharlin 18 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | Challenger could also have been avoided simply by not launching in conditions that were known to be out of spec. |
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| ▲ | xixixao an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| How is incremental development and testing related to human-rated flight? As is, your comment has a bold claim backed by seemingly unrelated fact. |
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| ▲ | mk_stjames an hour ago | parent [-] | | My comment was in reply to the parent comment saying "Starship is, essentially, Space Shuttle done right"
, and my claim is that this is not the case, that comparing Starship to the Space Shuttle is a category error, in that I don't see Starship actually being replacement for the Shuttle as a human-transport vehicle, and thus it cannot be considered 'Space Shuttle done right'. |
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| ▲ | 2OEH8eoCRo0 16 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I concur. Everyone is acting like Starship is fully developed and finished and flying humans as we speak. |
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| ▲ | Quarrelsome an hour ago | parent | prev [-] |
| isn't the whole "we put a human into space" symbolic anyway? There's no air up there. If we had a full supply chain of robots that brought us back regolith from the moon wouldn't that be more useful than being able to send a person up there? |
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| ▲ | colechristensen an hour ago | parent [-] | | nah humans going is the point. the science is interesting but not of that tremendous value. we don't view archaeology as the highest human endeavor do we? | | |
| ▲ | piloto_ciego 37 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | It can be both, right? Like, we can put humans there and expand the resources available to humanity immensely by sending teams of robots out to manufacture the future habitats, etc.? Personally, I'm looking forward to joining the Elench. Humans are allowed to join the Elench aren't they? | |
| ▲ | p-e-w 36 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | What exactly is “the point” of humans going there, other than science? Telling a hero story that ignores the contributions of hundreds of thousands that made this possible? Gratifying a few mammoth-sized egos? |
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