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| ▲ | stevep98 34 minutes ago | parent | next [-] |
| I don’t think is right at all. It’s just Musk focusing on the fundamentals of ‘what is stopping us making significantly (100x or 1000x) more progress on space exploration. And the answer to that is that it’s just too expensive to launch mass off the earth. If you make it much cheaper, then everything else flows from that. You no longer have to spend years engineering everything at the cutting edge of your mass budget. You can use off the shelf parts, you can have redundancy. The gains will come when these flights become commonplace. |
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| ▲ | dgroshev 15 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Biosphere stuff is more fundamental than just mass. We had several closed ecosystem projects built on the ground out of concrete, with no mass limits, and all of them failed. |
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| ▲ | adrian_b an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > a spin lab for the ISS to at least see if mice can reproduce in 0.3g? That was done and the results were published a few months ago, but the study did not have any relationship with SpaceX. The results were rather pessimistic for the long-term missions on Moon or Mars. In my opinion, even if it is possible that humans might support a somewhat lower gravity than mice, the conclusion is that for interplanetary travel humans must use only spaceships that create artificial gravity by rotation. The results of the study were that mice require a gravity of at least 2/3 of that of Earth to stay in perfect health and of at least 1/3 of that of Earth to avoid extremely severe health damage. This means that even on Mars the gravity is not sufficient for long-term human life. In an underground Mars base, one could make a part with increased gravity by rotation, where the crew should spend most of the time, but that would increase a lot the complexity of building and maintaining such a base. |
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| ▲ | api 14 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | I didn’t know this had been done. If the results hold then it’s another thing that counts toward settling space, not another planet. It’s where I’ve been leaning for a while. If we want to go beyond Earth build huge rotating stations or spacecraft. Don’t just go down another gravity well. | |
| ▲ | hinkley an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Or by constant thrust at 1/3g, or a mix of thrust and rotation that achieves sufficient acceleration, though spinning + thrust means precession which I’m glad isn’t my job to zero out. Unless someone invents the Epstein drive we aren’t going to have astronauts experiencing acceleration for months rather than minutes of the trip. And the more constant the acceleration the shorter the trip anyway. |
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| ▲ | MarsZebra an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The Mars smokescreen was strong so a lot of people bought into it, even employees who didn't have the security clearances. The origin of SpaceX with Michael D. Griffin and Pete Worden really make it clear though. https://ioc.exchange/@muskfiles/116333241408716236 |
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| ▲ | api 3 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Really interesting. I remember scratching my head a little about stainless steel. It’s durable but heavy, cuts into payload fraction, and probably not what you would pick if the goal was to shoot interplanetary. At least not for the upper stage. Maybe for the big chunky reusable booster, but there aluminum probably makes more sense. Falcon is aluminum so it’s already the devil they know anyway. I recall talk about transpiration cooling. My guess is it died due to complexity or that it would use fuel as coolant which further eats mass. There was a bunch of original work on composites which would make way more sense if you want to hit high energy orbits. You could still, AFAIK, use Starship to put a bunch of components into LEO and assemble something to go interplanetary. Or at least its booster. I have wondered if we won’t see interplanetary on a big scale (beyond Apollo scale) until we have fusion or beamed power. You could put up a beamed power constellation with this architecture I guess. But it makes a lot more sense as is for LEO military applications. I can see that. The weird Musk-Russia links, if that is real, are odd given this thesis. If we are building Golden Dome or whatever it’s called now then who is the adversary? If not Russia than who? China isn’t expansionist beyond Taiwan and it’d be way cheaper to build our own domestic TSMC than to fight that proxy war. North Korea and maybe Iran are the only other credible threats with an interest in attacking the US, and they are kind of a joke compared to Russia and China when it comes to long range capacity. | |
| ▲ | MetaWhirledPeas an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Curious to know what the smoke would be screening? | | |
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| ▲ | MetaWhirledPeas an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Oh I doubt very much he has given up on that. He's smart enough to know that the delivery time is going to be extremely variable, and that most of the other problems involve figuring out how to make the place palatable to humans, which is just too far in the future right now. Don't bite off more than you can chew. |
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| ▲ | ordu 32 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > which is just too far in the future right now. How much time is needed to do the required research? Like, how long it would take to learn how to create an artificial biosphere on a small scale, so you can have a farm on the Moon or Mars? 10 years? 20 years? Maybe 50 years? Isn't now is the good time to start the research? |
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| ▲ | hinkley an hour ago | parent | prev [-] |
| The silver lining is that if Elon had continued pushing for Mars, to not let it happen organically, Mars would become a company town, with all the bad connotations that ever had, with paying for air added on top of it. |
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| ▲ | api 10 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Until they toss Musk out an airlock and found the Mars Colonial Republic. :) |
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