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▲ x313 a day ago

The author of this piece is a SWE-turned-influencer "China hawk" from OpenAI (i.e. the primary advocate of export bans along with Anthropic), and this isn't an academic paper despite the theming.

I have no idea whether this is legit or not (there's no link to any code), I'm mentioning this because all the comments here are assuming truth without verifying the contents.

▲cptcobalt a day ago | parent | next [-]

This post is from Will Depue

The supposed “China Hawk” you mention, on google searching, seems to be David Perdue.

Is there a chance you are confusing similar yet different last names as the same person?

▲x313 a day ago | parent [-]

No, the names are correct. OpenAI has quite a few SWEs who spend a lot of time advocating for positions on social media.

▲iantpe a day ago | parent [-]

I don't understand. What difficulties would these Chinese companies face if they held their training overseas?

▲jonathanstrange 21 hours ago | parent [-]

The US could impose secondary sanctions to close the loophole, or pressure these countries behind closed doors to not allow these data center uses. Since the only goal of the export restrictions is to hamper Chinese AI efforts, that would be a logical step. If there is one thing that is certain then it's that the current US administration doesn't care at all about open trade and international trade agreements.

▲modeless a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The method seems sound and the findings correct. But I think many are missing that (as the research itself says) this doesn't prove any illegal behavior. It's perfectly legal for Chinese companies to train models on GPUs that they rent outside of China. It's also legal for companies to buy GPUs and install them in Malaysia with the intention of renting them to Chinese companies.

There isn't even an allegation that the Chinese companies lied about this. They simply didn't disclose which chips were used. In all cases where they did disclose the training chips, this research found the disclosures to be accurate.

▲adrian_b 18 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The small print in TFA states the many limitations of their method, i.e. that it actually provides no evidence about which GPUs were really used for training, and much less about who was their owner and where they were located.

The method just strongly suggests that the initial values of the weights, before starting training, were generated with the NVIDIA cuRAND library on a Blackwell GPU (or on an AMD GPU, where the NVIDIA library is emulated for compatibility).

The training might have been done with thousands of GPUs of other types. It is plausible that the GPUs used for training or at least a part of them may have been of the same type with the one used for initializing the model, but it is not proven in any way.

A scenario that matches what is reported in the article, but in which there is only a single Blackwell GPU involved, is if the LLM was intialized on the workstation of some lead developer, who had the privilege to use the best GPU they had, and then it was transferred to a server cluster for training, where other kinds of GPUs were used.

Now that this has been published, it would be very simple in the future for any Chinese AI company to avoid this "fingerprinting", by just using a different PRNG, instead of cuRAND.

▲modeless 12 hours ago | parent [-]

Yes it's simple to avoid this fingerprinting now that people know about it, but nobody knew about it before. I don't believe people are casually transferring snapshots between chip architectures without a really good reason, either. It's hard enough to coordinate these training runs without involving multiple chip architectures in a single run.

▲RobertoG 21 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Does 'legal' an 'illegal' apply here? Surely, the USA legal system only apply in the USA?

▲modeless 13 hours ago | parent | next [-]

'Legal' and 'illegal' apply to Nvidia or other US companies facilitating these activities. Perfectly legal for Nvidia to supply GPUs to be rented by Chinese companies, or for Oracle to build datacenters for Chinese companies to rent, as long as they are installed outside of China.

▲cowlevel 20 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You'd think so but the USA is also the country that's most advanced at getting its legal system to apply outside of it. E.g. they shut down the International Criminal Court.

▲graemep 19 hours ago | parent | next [-]

When did they shut it down?

There were cases being considered as recently as yesterday. https://www.icc-cpi.int/case-records

▲cowlevel 17 hours ago | parent [-]

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50479876

▲graemep 15 hours ago | parent [-]

So not "shut down" but unsubstantiated reports that one country is in talks with the US about limiting its powers.

▲LtWorf 20 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

>USA is also the country that's most advanced at getting its legal system to apply outside of it

Yes it has nukes. However china also has nukes. That poses some legal limitation.

▲cowlevel 20 hours ago | parent [-]

The USA didn't need nukes to get Venezuela.

▲m4rtink 14 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Did they really "get" Venezuela ? What actually prevents them to start ignoring what US wants in a while ?

▲LtWorf 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It needed them to avoid retaliation from the rest of the world.

▲sam0x17 a day ago | parent | prev [-]

it's funny because it convinces me that export controls don't work so why do them

▲tristanj a day ago | parent | next [-]

I used to think the same, that export controls didn't work, until I realized that China has leapfrogged the West on every technology that wasn't subject to export controls. And the only ones where they're still behind are the ones under export controls.

▲cowlevel 20 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The purpose of a system is what it does, not what it doesn't do.

▲RobotToaster a day ago | parent | prev [-]

It's like the war on drugs, just one more crackdown will fix everything this time.

▲chrisco255 a day ago | parent | next [-]

Its more like the war on bugs. Just because you can't kill them all doesn't mean you shouldn't spray and lay pest control.

▲cwmoore a day ago | parent | prev [-]

because they are bad