| ▲ | keybrd-intrrpt a day ago | |
This is what people miss. Their view of China is decades out of date, and they aren't paying attention to the recent history of industries where China has gone from playing catch-up to outright dominance. It's not just about the end product (GPUs or whatever). It's about the entire supply chain, manufacturing capacity, and industrial ecosystem behind it. And the dangerous assumption is that being technologically ahead today guarantees you'll stay ahead tomorrow. It doesn't matter if China's products are "only" 80–90% as good as their non-Chinese alternatives if those alternatives eventually go out of business because they've lost the market. Once the customers, manufacturing capacity, suppliers, and expertise have migrated elsewhere, being technically superior doesn't mean much. And rebuilding that ecosystem is vastly harder than losing it. We've seen versions of this play out in solar panels, batteries, consumer electronics, and increasingly automobiles. There's no reason to assume GPUs or CUDA-like software stacks are somehow immune. That's what Jensen is (and was) trying to protect. Not just Nvidia's chip sales, but an entire ecosystem of expertise, manufacturing, suppliers, and supporting industries. Otherwise, you risk repeating what happened with telecom equipment. Everyone buys the cheaper Chinese alternatives, non-Chinese suppliers lose market share or go out of business, and Chinese technology becomes embedded in critical infrastructure everywhere. Then, SURPRISE, everyone suddenly realizes the security and geopolitical implications, worries about espionage, and starts demanding that it all be ripped out and replaced. Except by then, you've already hollowed out the industries that could have supplied the replacements. | ||