So I should short it?

jstanley 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

To profit from shorting it you need to not just be right that it is going to go down, but be able to tolerate the volatility in the interim.

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rob74 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". That, or the markets may turn out to be right after all...

	▲	jstanley 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I always liked "you can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

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alembic_fumes 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

So I should straddle it?

edit: To clarify, this is a light-hearted continuation about how essentially any claim about the stock market is enactable in some form. And so even the much of generally well-intentioned advise is in fact a claim that the person should be putting their money on, if they truly believe it. I think only claims like "Nobody knows what's going to happen, it's effectively gambling => stay out of the market" come close to being fully self-consistent, but e.g. advising to not buy because the price comes down, or to not short because of volatility both fail this. Markets are funny.

	▲	jstanley 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I didn't claim that it was going to go down though. My only claim was that to profit from shorting it you need to not just be right that it is going to go down, but be able to tolerate the volatility in the interim. That's a claim about the stock market, how do you enact it? Note it is not a claim that volatility is definitely going to be high.

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dozerly 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If you have to ask, then you shouldn’t short it.

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xnx 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Right. I was trying to emphasize that no one knows what the stock price will do.

	▲	ftchd 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		That's why there's a stock market

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DharmaPolice 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If you view that as an investment then no. If you view it as a minor flutter then maybe. You might believe that Team X will win the next game (maybe at a 60% chance) but unless you're a degenerate gambler you wouldn't bet heavily on that outcome.

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epolanski 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

As the late Charlie Munger said about Tesla: I wouldn't own it, I wouldn't short it.

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dist-epoch 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Shorting the leading AI company during the AI revolution?

Reminds me when HN was saying NVIDIA is a good short 3 years ago, supposedly it was "in a bubble", because it's stock prices was as if it had 10x the revenue it had in back then. Plot twist: today NVIDIA revenue is 10x the revenue from 2023, so it turns out the stock was priced exactly right back then, because the stock market is forward looking.

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small_model 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I wouldn't short it, it's likely to ruin you similar to what happened to the Tesla shorts. I would hold off to see if their earnings look good then go all in with 100-1 leverage. /s