So what do you think their growth YoY will be in 2027?

skew-aberration 2 hours ago | parent [-]

I have seen most revenue projections are on the order of 2-3x, but I suspect about 4-5x.

IMHO profitability will be worse though. They will contain to take on more and more investments - training, R&D, and 'sales and marketing' for enterprise share. They will face more competition than ever before. The range and types of models will continue to diversify, with real-time models for robotics and computer use paving the way for new entrants.

The investor confidence to back this doubling down will be spurred by rapid progress, panic deregulation while old-guard corporate democrats still hold power in the US, and much stricter sanctions against Chinese competitors, their models, and their eventual domestic hardware. The tech world will look a lot more factional by that point, with pseudo mergers & acquisitions amongst the big companies beginning, unabated by a toothless FTC. Anthropic will probably get closer to Amazon, and we could see big moves amongst Meta, Microsoft, and/or Google too.

Ultimately, Anthropic and OpenAI will maintain their market leading positions through at least 2028/2029 but only after a protracted period of significant equity dilution due to the expensive acquisitions and large outside investments which will be necessary in these market conditions.

Chinese hardware and models will look like a serious threat by the end of 2027 but will be largely locked out of US/Western markets. At the point the equation will have changed drastically - credit issues in the West led by mortgage security collapses will shape the investment environment and 2028 election, and rapid developments in physical technology and manufacturing will take the spotlight away from intelligence itself.

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aurareturn 2 hours ago | parent [-]

If 5x, then they'll end Q3 2027 with about $350B annualized revenue.

Looking at their 2027 compute commitments, it looks like around $72B total.

So I don't understand where this "burning cash" claim comes from by a few people here.

	▲	skew-aberration 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I'm going to lock in $325B. People lack the accounting know-how to talk about it correctly. But compute for inference is just not the main expense right now. If they take on more funding for training and/or build out, then they have to share the profits with more people. The growing revenue is shared by more people. As more options vest, they have to share with more people. If they need to acquire external companies for particular capabilities, profit is shared. If they have to pay hand over fist for hyperscaler compute in 2027 - more profit shared. So as their revenue grows rapidly, the fraction of that revenue which they've promised to other people is growing too - case in point, they operated at an $80B loss on paper this year because the unrealized future-profits promised to early investors is so valuable relative to current revenues. If they have to make more such deals to continue investment (e.g a low IPO price which require shelling even more shares to stay competitive), then they will continue to create vast value but less of that value will be captured by the current investors (the 'burning cash' may go to compute providers, outside investors, as discounts to enterprise and consumers, etc instead of to Anthropic).