AI doomers have predicted 1095 of the last 0 AI bubble pops.

Everyone is using more and more tokens, everyone is complaining that providers lobotomize flag ship models because they don't have the capacity to serve everyone.

Then they turn around and compare it to the dark fiber bust or railways or whatever when in each of those the issue was the capacity being build that no one used.

It's been 2 years since I could buy a gpu for love or money. It's been one for ram.

My old rig is worth ~two~ three[0] times what I paid for it inflation adjusted.

[0] fuck me ram is rising again.

If tokens are being given away below cost, of course you're gonna use more. It's not gonna last. How many tokens would you spend on random experiments if they were much more expensive? If tokens are so valuable, why do I (and many others) get to use them on economically worthless things until I'm bored?

We just don't know the true value of tokens until those subsidies stop, and the subsidies don't stop because the respective companies don't want to know, at least until everyone cashed out. The valuations of AI companies are very difficult to reconcile with current revenue (which doesn't cover cost) and with a sober mind it's hard to imagine where all this additional revenue is going to come from, down the line. And that's not to say the the technology isn't fundamentally transformative and revolutionary. So was the internet, but it still created an investment bubble.

The RAM prices are in yet another pork cycle, which will be exacerbated by the fact that many previous pork cycles left RAM manufacturers with excess capacity and rock-bottom prices, so they're much more careful investing and more assertive negotiating contracts now.