> they're about timing.

Yes. And valuation. I think the leading frontier labs will be fine in the long-run and NVidia will be fine. Some of their investors who bought at too high of a valuation, expecting to flip it in too short a time frame will lose a chunk of their money when they have to sell for less.

The hyper-scalers in the middle are the most vulnerable. They borrowed billions at increasingly high rates to lock up GPU and power capacity. They are 'ground zero' of a lot of the 'circular money' deals. Big banks who financed hyper-scalers initially, expecting they could package that debt up and sell it on to diversify, are already struggling to find buyers for the debt, causing its value to drop, which then forces the banks to cover with more collateral, and that's how the snowball starts down the mountain.

Wait... with hyper-scalers, we are talking about Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, are we not?

And do these not all have established business models that are ridiculously profitable, and huge cash reserves?

How the heck are THEY vulnerable, and the "bare" frontier labs like Anthropic and OpenAI with no preexisting business models or profits, but equally ridiculous borrowing are supposedly not?