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▲ danpalmer 3 hours ago

How integral is Huang to the success of Nvidia? As much as he seems to have done a good job, he appears less integral than with some companies like Bezos/Amazon or Zuckerberg/Meta (whether these are/were or not is besides the point, they are seen as such).

I'd expect a board to fire a CEO over this, so he will have to be critical to the business, more than a normal CEO is critical, to survive. The market reaction to him going would also be interesting. Seems like the markets are starting to figure out what the value is here.

▲Conscat 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

As an Nvidian, I strongly disagree. I'm sure somehow the company would be fine in the long run without him, but until today I believed that his vastly superior judgement to his peers is to credit for Nvidia's success. Not to minca words, I think he is a far more qualified and intelligent CEO than pretty much anyone in big tech. There's a reason Nvidia doesn't have to lay people off ever.

▲InsidiousWombat an hour ago | parent [-]

I think that says more about other CEOs than of his brilliance.

▲bluegatty 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

"I'd expect a board to fire a CEO over this, "

God god, no.

There's very little he could ever accidentally tell someone that would matter that much.

Other than handing over very detailed schemas etc, there's almost nothing important he could tell them.

Maybe some future ideas and plans, maybe some government things about the Administration, it's small peanuts.

Nvidia is an operational success, their IP is embedded within deep layers of know how and expertise.

He's the 'father' of that org, he set the tone, they like him there.

Nvidia would risk being an Intel without him.

▲danpalmer 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

A spy like this isn't looking for chip schematics, they're looking for strategy. Strategy that comes from the CEO. Ultimately the main thing a CEO brings is judgement, and this was extremely poor judgement.

▲bluegatty 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Strategy changes all the time. It will change overnight with the election results. What matters most is the information underlying that strategy, like, if ASML was coming out with some very specific new thing that would tilt the industry - that would be key.

▲denkmoon 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Not knowing someone is a spy is extremely poor judgement? Telling his mistress all kinds of corporate secrets would be "extremely poor judgement" but at this point I see no evidence that this happened?

▲skippyboxedhero 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

He denied, implausibly, all knowledge about Supermicro. I don't think that is going to work this time.

The crime here isn't giving secrets to the Chinese, it is helping them evade export controls. Again, this is something that Nvidia and Jensen has been investigated on repeatedly. If he knew that Megaspeed was a front for China, quite hard to deny given that Alice Huang seems to have brought Chinese execs to every meeting with Jensen then it is very bad. And yes, the stuff that Jensen would have said would have been very useful because, I assume, the inference is that he would have been helping them evade sanctions.

The very best case from here is that the board fires him.

▲bluegatty an hour ago | parent [-]

"The crime here isn't giving secrets to the Chinese, it is helping them evade export controls. "

If that were true, then it's fair game, but I don't think that's what is going on.

US gov has not stated they are targeting him.

Also, there is a gigantic difference between 'avoidance' and 'evasion', like with taxes.

We'll see.

▲mandeepj an hour ago | parent [-]

> "US gov has not stated they are targeting him."

Do we know that yet for sure? There's a closed-door US congressional hearing scheduled for nov/18

▲ 21 minutes ago | parent [-]
[deleted]
▲moregrist 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> God god, no.

> There's very little he could ever accidentally tell someone that would matter that much.

I think the practical implications matter a lot less than the PR and legal ones.

If the stock price plummets tomorrow and doesn’t recover, the board may have to act.

Similarly, if the right governments start asking hard questions, the board may have to act.

This is likely going to be a slow-rolling shit show for a while. At the very least, it’s legitimate grounds for one or more congressional investigations, which may start here but could go anywhere.

▲fuzzythinker an hour ago | parent | next [-]

If the stock price plummets tomorrow and doesn’t recover, it is likely ppl are afraid he'll be replaced. If the board "act" by replacing him, the price is likely to dive more, not recover

▲bluegatty an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Elon Musk makes nazi salutes and says radically unhinged things, and does many things which are arguably illegal.

Most investors don't care.

Unless there was some 'materially detrimental disclosure' this is just tabloid.

The fact that Elon has a literal harem, Tesla has $500M loan from Chinese banks with all sorts of conditions etc.

Elon literally does Zoom calls with Vladimir freaking Putin.

I think this is a nothing burger.

▲andsoitis 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> How integral is Huang to the success of Nvidia?

He's the visionary behind what they do and the person who influences industries around him to make it real.

▲IncreasePosts 2 hours ago | parent [-]

What percent of nvidias success was due to vision, vs luck?

I made a boat load of money off of the Tesla IPO(and then holding for 12 years) but I only invested because I thought they wouldn't be a successful car company but would produce a bunch of patents that would be valuable when licensed to the big auto makers.

Obviously I got that wrong, but my investment still worked out - and I still have friends and family coming to me for investing advice because I made the right move but for the wrong reasons

▲jsw97 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Navigating this political/diplomatic climate is key to Nvidia's success, and he appears to be driving that? In normal times maybe it would be different.

▲dingaling911 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think his fear of failing is the reason for their success.

▲agnosticmantis 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I hope he at least gets a nice severance package in that scenario. Tough job market in tech right now.

▲ksec 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I have seen and read this a lot over the years and I am starting to wonder may be it isn't Pat Gelsinger that called Nvidia lucky but people actually felt it that way naturally.

For over a decade CUDA was nothing but a money and silicon wasting function that brought in very little extra revenue for the amount of company resources it uses. And arguably it started even before CUDA with Cg. And I will say another unpopular thing, they are in hardware business, apart from the past 1 - 2 years which they are enjoying massive success, for most of the past 30 years hardware business are 10x tougher than Software side.

Most CEO would have given up. Paul Graham invented the term to describe it, Founder Mode.

And for another note about comments elsewhere in the thread that Open AI is what brought up the current AI craze. Nvidia was already selling to OpenAI via introduction of Elon Musk in 2016.

I seriously doubt Nvidia would have been anywhere close to what they are today without Jensen's Leadership.

▲stickfigure an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

What's this puritanical streak? Men in power have been having affairs from time immemorial. It's not great but it's also not original. The guy works for a corporation, not a church. Yawn.

▲iambateman 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

We’re going to find out tomorrow and I suspect in this case the answer starts with a B.

▲hoppp 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm skeptical that he gets fired for this. The "Spy I loved" James bond style twist combined with his iconic leather jacket might actually come off as badass.

▲plaidfuji 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

My understanding is that he has something like 50 direct reports. Which would make him a pretty major single point of failure.

▲FireBeyond 40 minutes ago | parent [-]

[dead]

▲gcbgcb 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[dead]

▲teknologist 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

How integral is Nvidia to the success of LLMs? Seems like a few companies could step in and put that TSMC capacity to good use...

▲Tadpole9181 3 hours ago | parent [-]

I'm sorry, who exactly? NVIDIA essentially has no real competition because of how wildly successful they are.

▲danpalmer 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Google, Microsoft, Amazon, AMD, Apple, Huawei...

These aren't all entirely drop-in replacements, there are some trade-offs involved, but there are many companies with alternatives that could take Nvidia's market if they stall.

▲andsoitis 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> Google, Microsoft, Amazon, AMD, Apple, Huawei...

Which of those sell chips at the Nvidia caliber sell to AI model builders in the US (not use internally)?

▲IncreasePosts 27 minutes ago | parent [-]

Google

▲mjr00 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Not to sound too negative but IMO NVidia has largely been "right place, right time" and I don't think Huang has had much to do with it. NVidia made computer graphics cards and CUDA long ago; they just happened to be in the right place, twice, in quick succession: first crypto/blockchain, then AI, neither of which they really had any part in boosting. It's like they set up a general store that sells pickaxes and drills, then someone found gold in the mountain right next to them, and then the goldmine ran out but someone found oil right under them.

The one big thing I will given Huang credit for is not going all-in on blockchain and recognizing it as a bubble. NVidia never really pivoted from their core business/customers to support crypto miners, unlike what they're doing with AI.

▲solyin 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

There were a lot of computer graphics cards manufacturers back in the 90's. Nvidia survived amongst the whole pack of them. 3dfx, Matrox, S3, ATI, Cirrus. How much of that is soley due to Jenson vs outside factors outside of his control, only he really knows, but I think her deserves a bit more credit than right place right time. CUDA was a very expensive investment with zero guarantee of payoff. The market could have gone an entirely different way and Nvidia would have failed.

▲mjr00 3 hours ago | parent [-]

That's fair. NVidia's execution has been rock solid for as long as they've been around and Huang deserves credit for that. But I would say most of the reason they've 100x'd since 2017 has been external forces.

▲est31 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> first crypto/blockchain, then AI, neither of which they really had any part in boosting.

Nvidia boosts AI a lot. They are the central bank of AI. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49673098

▲mjr00 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Maybe the verb tense was unclear. NVidia currently boosts AI, for obvious reasons. But OpenAI was the company who did all of the legwork to make AI into an industry, with some minor support from NVidia. NVidia wouldn't have 10x'd since 2022 without OpenAI.

▲est31 3 hours ago | parent [-]

AI has been a (minor but existing) industry before OpenAI. E.g. Deepmind exists since 2010, 6 years before OpenAIs founding. Sure, OpenAI has contributed to it, in great deals, but Nvidia has always been there during the growth of AI. In 2012, AlexNet has been trained on GTX 580 GPUs, in 2016 AlphaGo used Nvidia GPUs, etc.

▲javier2 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yeah, they had been working on CUDA for a very long time before AI turned out to be interesting again.

▲SXX 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

To be honest other hardware companies had years to catch up to Cuda and ML, but they invested shit into their software stacks.

Even when AI boom was imminient but 10 times smaller 2-3 years ago they did not invested heavily enough and Nvidia went all in.

I have no clue what percent of that decision making was Huang, but all the competition leadership was certainly incompetent.

So at least he did built company with a good leadership. Its a fact. Even if I personally dont like Nvidia or its products.

▲hcta 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> they just happened to be in the right place, twice, in quick succession

that is generally what it looks like when someone is smarter than you

▲mjr00 3 hours ago | parent [-]

> that is generally what it looks like when someone is smarter than you

Maybe. This is also what everyone said about Elon for a long time, though.

▲CamperBob2 3 hours ago | parent [-]

It's not that Musk is not smart, he's just erratic, and growing increasingly so. He is the Howard Hughes of our day. They will find his body in an expensive hotel room at some point, surrounded by bottles of his own urine.

▲xiaoyu2006 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The had the insight to develop and promote CUDA long before DL was a thing. IIRC AlexNet was when CUDA really paid off.

▲altmanaltman 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Yeah, but in this case they also built the pickaxes and drills and did it better than any other pickaxe and drill builder. In your analogy, they are commodities and a shop like that can be set up by anyone. But in this case, that doesn't apply. And if you look at their sales composition, they never pivoted away from gaming, but data centers clearly became ludicrously more attractive in the AI era. But they were always very good at computing triangles, perhaps the best in the world. They were lucky that market forces made that computation very valuable but they were not lucky in their ability to build it.

▲mjr00 3 hours ago | parent [-]

I do agree! They execute extremely well and Huang deserves praise for that. I just don't see him as a visionary leader shaping the industry in the same way that e.g. Jobs was. In an alternate world where the NSA doesn't create bitcoin and OpenAI is never founded, NVidia would be a stable, reliable producer of consumer electronic parts.

▲altmanaltman an hour ago | parent [-]

how can you be sure though we wont find a good use of computing triangles in that alternative universe? that technology would always have abstract value, how it is impmemented will depend on market forces but you have to admit, they know how to go with the flow, maybe to an extent where it seems like they just keep getting lucky