| ▲ | lxgr a day ago |
| > If all of this money went into the capital markets instead [...] Money is neither created nor destroyed in prediction markets. (In most cases, the collateral goes into boring money market fund like fixed-income products, as far as I understand.) The real concern here is that, for many people, paid employment simply doesn't look like a viable way to earn a living anymore, so they feel the need to play high-risk, high-reward games in the first place. Capital markets are a great way to preserve and modestly grow one's wealth. If there's no reasonable perspective of any wealth in the first place, is it any wonder that people are looking beyond? In other words: If your job is at most paying half of what you need to lead the life you want to live (and that, in many cases, your parents have been able to afford working the same job just fine), suddenly betting on a game that pays double or nothing doesn't seem so irrational anymore. |
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| ▲ | garciasn a day ago | parent | next [-] |
| > The real concern here is that, for many people, paid employment simply doesn't look like a viable way to earn a living anymore, so they feel the need to play high-risk, high-reward games in the first place. This cannot possibly be the motivation; gambling is very rarely a worthwhile investment. Manipulation through advertising, mobile app behavior alteration, and ease of access are the sole motivators here. |
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| ▲ | cyanydeez a day ago | parent [-] | | Gambling addition is a addiction. No one who has it is rational. Same way drugs is an addiction, people who are on drugs are rarely thinking rational. And why would they when there's very few options to begin with. I dont get what you think is happening when people gamble or take drugs. Rarely is the reason rational and sober. | | |
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| ▲ | mandeepj a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| You referred the line about “capital markets”, but made a comment about prediction markets |
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| ▲ | lxgr a day ago | parent [-] | | So does the quoted text, no? It contrasts the two. |
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| ▲ | watwut a day ago | parent | prev [-] |
| > people, paid employment simply doesn't look like a viable way to earn a living anymore, so they feel the need to play high-risk, high-reward games in the first place. The odds are such that they loose. Gamblers end up with less money. These people are addicts solving their emotional problem at high financial cost and debt. > suddenly betting on a game that pays double or nothing doesn't seem so irrational anymore. It is as irrational as in any other situation. And odds are not double or nothing. That would simply made betting pointless |
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| ▲ | lxgr 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | > And odds are not double or nothing. That would simply made betting pointless If you bet on a prediction market sitting at 50%, the odds are literally double or nothing. How does that make it pointless? > The odds are such that they loose. Gamblers end up with less money. These people are addicts solving their emotional problem at high financial cost and debt. The same action in the same market, taken by different people, can both be irrational gambling or perfectly rational risk hedging, regardless of whether the game is stacked against its players or not. Gambling is probably a lot like substance addiction: There's probably a huge inherent component to it that makes some people much more prone to get addicted to it than others, but circumstances can vastly increase the chances that any given person is pushed in a bad direction. Gamification and societal normalization of gambling certainly can be that kind of nudge. | | |
| ▲ | watwut 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | > If you bet on a prediction market sitting at 50%, the odds are literally double or nothing. How does that make it pointless? Your expected return is exactly 0 in the long term. Over many bets, you will not gain any money. On the plus side, you will not loose any money. That is why I said pointless - it is literally fair game. > can both be irrational gambling or perfectly rational risk hedging, regardless of whether the game is stacked against its players or not. The hedging thing is rationalization. They are not hedging risks of number of goals in a match, sports outcome or when Trump farts. > Gambling is probably a lot like substance addiction I agree, it is. It has super higher suicide tho and is harder to get out of - due to debt, due to casino being in your pocket, due to it being everywhere around. You can go watch sports and not see crack ad, but you cant go watch sports or read news without ads for gambling (whether prediction market or sports). |
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