I mean, if we look at this another way:

  Number of errors with the polls: 30
  Number of errors with Kalshi: 25
  
  Error reduction: 16%

> Either over a long time scale, a prediction market will always be at least as good as the best expert, authoritative organization, or other information source. Or you can get rich quick.

[1]: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq