| ▲ | binbag 2 hours ago | |
> In theory, these doubling times would add up to infinite capabilities within one year. > we would reach extreme superintelligence within a year What does infinite capabilities mean? How about putting the growth on a log scale and see how that curve might look? What the hell is extreme superintelligence? | ||
| ▲ | rtrgrd 2 hours ago | parent [-] | |
I.e. by 6 months, you double once By 6+3 months you double twice By 6+3+1.5 months you double thrice Since the sequence 6+3+1.5+0.75+... never actually reaches 12 (geometric series), within a year they capabilities would have already been 'doubled' infinitely many times. Obviously this argument relies on a ton of spherical cow assumptions (and the author does acknowledge this), but i think there overall point is correct that this form of growth (where time horizons compress) is _even faster_ than exponential growth. | ||