Turns out that METR, the PR operation for big AI labs is better at predicting AI capabilities than AI skeptics.

What have they predicted? Ive read their papers, have you?

Please enlighten me. Most of them are cognitive scientists, who are mentally ill with little understanding of computers, larping as if they do. Its a chapter of the effective altruistic cult.

They are lobbyists at best, and a psychological operations unit of effective altruistic AI syndicate at worse. There's no real science being done, it's a bunch of moonlighting philosophers yapping and getting paid by labs to scare the normies and polticians by getting their "research" quoted in the NYT.