According to the Googles, there have been approximately 14,000 trading days since the Nasdaq Composite was founded, and it has fallen four-percent or more 147 days, meaning that we get a decline like this roughly every 100 trading days, which means about twice a calendar year, very roughly.

That's newsworthy, but also not extremely unusual.

The more interesting detail than nasdaq overall is just what sectors are having bad days and how concentrated that is. Seems to be predominantly AI companies, which is very relevant to the HN crowd.

> meaning that we get a decline like this roughly every 100 trading days, which means about twice a calendar year, very roughly.

Stock volatility is typically clustered. So, we can't make this type of claim. Just like this statement is flawed: Chicago experiences below freezing weather 10% of the time, so every 10 days you see below freezing weather.

If the bank collapse in Paraguay hadn’t happened today, and stocks hadn’t initially risen yesterday, I’d tend to agree with you. This is odd enough to potentially have a better explanation than everyone got happy and then sad all of a sudden.

Statistics about up and down days or particular periods of the stock market can say whatever you want, because they're so easy to cherry-pick.

A more interesting stat is the current CAPE.

https://www.thetrading.tools/shiller-cape

It is at levels only seen three times in the last century.

As others have said, averages aren't useful unless the behavior matches the average.

If those 147 4% drops actually happened every 100 days or so then it's not newsworthy or interesting, just an occasional correction.

If those 147 days happened all in a row that would mean the nasdaq dropped to 0.25% of its original value in about 4 months, which would be catastrophic.

The real answer is presumably somewhere in the middle, but the specifics are what determines if it's worth noting or not.

It's just diversity at work. Money is diversifying out of US corporations and flooding into other assets and markets. Expectations of the American economy's near-term future have outrun the realities on the ground, so you could say it is a diversification of expectations, too.

It seems what happens, because of regime change, is investors will take profit moving to cash, and in the coming weeks reposition. For example, Elon is going to have to pay for Doge so he is a political loser. Moving out of SpaceX is pragmatic and expect those who do drive up demand for something else in the coming weeks.

At the end of the day, everyone's retirement is tied to the SP500 and it will always go up.

https://finviz.com/index/COMP?p=d I find those square visualisations valuable since they indicate both size and delta.

It's funny: for all the "pattern recognition" people try to apply to markets, they often miss the very basic ones. "Record highs" are incredibly common, and "corrections" also happen regularly.

June had two similar NASDAQ corrections, July had one as well. Sept was flat, but October was a straight downward trend. On the flip side, April to June was a constantly increasing.

The last time the NASDAQ was this low was all the way back in April 2026...

What about 6% or more?

Probably more helpful to see the Z-score.

AI infra stocks are down more than 50% from the peak and hyperscalers stocks have underperformed the market in 1 year.

Also, I wonder who defines these "territories"

People seem to call it a "correction" to make themselves feel better but they're all just crashes to me, and crashes are normal

it's the same pattern too. except for 2000 or 2008 it tends to come back really fast too .

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