increasingly feeling like the entire US economy hangs on whether or not Ant/OAI can stay ahead of the Chinese models.

If the gap closes, we do zero austerity, and interest rates are high, I cannot see a way out of a major economic crisis, even if we do start to see dramatic productivity wins.

More on-topic (and maybe more positive?), but this model feels a bit more expensive than I would have expected!

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zardo 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> I cannot see a way out of a major economic crisis, even if we do start to see dramatic productivity wins.

The only thing worse for the economy than failure would be success.

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zozbot234 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> whether or not Ant/OAI can stay ahead of the Chinese models.

Ant/OAI/Google are way ahead when it comes to the smartest, largest-scale and most compute-intensive models. By Jevons' paradox, if you make inference for leaner models cheaper (as the Chinese models do, being broadly comparable to GPT Terra or Claude Sonnet; barely approaching Opus/Sol at their very best) that only increases demand for the complementary service of very smart inference.

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nh23423fefe 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

i dont see the connection from 2 model providers relative position to the entire economy? especially in the face of dramatic productivity wins.

	▲	goodmythical 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Look back to the "too big to fail" banks in '08. From biggest to smallest, the top three: AIG controlled $1.05T and market cap crashed from $180B to $3.8B Wachovia controlled $782B and market cap crashed from $110B to $1.8B Lehman Brothers controlled $639B and market cap crashed from $60B to $200M. Massive companies accounting for lots of money in people's retirment accounts. The companies made mistakes leading to what would have resulted or did result in defaulting on their debts. Suddenly billions of dollars vanished from retirement accounts. We could very easily see a similar cascade of corrections if we get a few more "Alphabet missed earnings" news calls.

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vcryan 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It's arguable that there is a threshold of quality that matter and US and China are both there already. I guess we'll see. Many of us on here are software engineers and I think we've seen that while Opus 4.7 (I think) was some sort of outlier/miracle, today there are several options to choose from. Depending on the task, the harness, etc Astra/Fable are only better when the work demands their level of capability - which much of software engineering does not.

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petcat 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> the entire US economy hangs on whether or not Ant/OAI...

... What on earth. Please go outside for awhile.