The article asks the 25 trillion dollar question. ‘What is the near term demand for AI?’ And the answer is nobody knows; especially not these companies. I think the bubble is almost inevitable. Everyone is racing to gain market domination as they see it as winner take all, but it just doesn’t appear to be shaking out that way. There are five very competent US based models alone and then I don’t even know how many open weight models. Unless the industry coalesces around 2-3 models soon I don’t think anyone makes any money on this in the next 10 years+.

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airstrike 4 hours ago | parent [-]

There's no real incentive for the industry to coalesce around 2-3 models. I think it's very unlikely to happen.

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pizzafeelsright 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Nobody wants to admit that while partial to one company or another, brand and all that, I highly doubt that within 1-2 years we can tell the difference between model output for 90% of our tasks.

Except for the 'vibe' of some of the models with their writing or testing style I am not certain I could tell you which model is which unless asked.

Switching from model to model at the moment has been seamless without extensive 1 to 1 bench-marking but most of my tasks are never 1 to 1.

	▲	etempleton 4 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Completely agree. And for companies, if things are that indistinguishable, it is going to come down to cost and enterprise security / privacy. Sure companies will be slower to switch, but they will. It will be a race to the bottom.

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arealaccount 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It could be like the last SOTA lab to run out of money wins

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Zambyte 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Training is expensive. That seems like an important incentive.

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etempleton 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I agree. Which is why I think the bubble is going to pop in the nearish term.