Pre-AI-boom, Intel was a failing chipmaker. The situation was bad in all respects. Processor design fell behind AMD. Fabs fell behind TSMC/Samsung/etc. Culture was broken. Massive braindrain.

Stock was down three-fold between its peak around 2019 and its bottom in 2024/2025. Indeed, it was down three-fold in 2024/2025 from its 2000 dot-com peak.

Basically, imploding company, on its way for collapse.

With AI boom, there was more demand for ICs than production capacity. It almost didn't matter how bad your chips were -- someone would buy them, and at a healthy markup. This placed Intel in a very strong position to recover.

That recovered some value -- going above their previous high, but much less than 25 years of S&P500 growth. However, it's worth remembering the peak of $120 was less than double it's dot-com peak 25 years prior.

If AI boom doesn't materialize, Intel may, again, be on a path to death.

If it does materialize, but like the dot-com boom with a few winners and many losers, Intel will likely be one of the losers.

Ergo, falling value.

NVidia, in contrast, looks a lot more like the Amazon of the dot-com bust.

▲

EQFitzgerald an hour ago | parent [-]

Nvidia is essentially scheduled to collapse with the rise of 1-bit NNs.

	▲	aoeusnth1 5 minutes ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Confusingly, the thesis of both bulls and bears of the ai market is that AI will continue to get better and cheaper...
	▲	JumpCrisscross 33 minutes ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		> Nvidia is essentially scheduled to collapse with the rise of 1-bit NNs This assumes the shape of demand for computational intelligence which we don't know the answer to. Maybe 1-bit NNs do everything we want to do with LLMs. Maybe it means we span tens of thousands of them to do sundry tasks every day.