> For them to pay back what they have on their balance sheet entire continents will functionally be a spec in comparison

Walk me through this math. I’m seeing $900bn Capex over a decade. That’s $90bn required free cash flow a year, on average. If they can do 25% margins, that requires $360bn annual steady-state revenues. That doesn’t require continent-scale anything.

> If they can do 25% margins,

This is the assumption we disagree on. They're net negative by an order of magnitude on most of their current customers. I don't see them flipping to break even + 25%.

Further you're assuming they can turn that on today, when they're still very clearly not ready. Every year the timeline gets worse.

Take them to 2% margin with 8 years to go and you're looking at needing 4.5t annual.

This is normally where I'd say "but 2% feels extreme..." and hedge in the middle, but like...the current pricing isn't even close to 25% margin, it's not even close to break even.

Those numbers are stupid large for a company whose only moat is never ever being in second place.

> That doesn’t require continent-scale anything.

Wha???

There are 13 companies in <<total>>, on the <<entire planet>>, that make more than that: https://companiesmarketcap.com/largest-companies-by-revenue/

Most of those needed decades to reach this point.

Anthropic has a near-clone in OpenAI (and vice versa). There are multiple smaller competitors, several much cheaper (especially the Chinese models).

Anthropic obviously needs continent-scale balance sheets, I would argue "multiple continent-scale balance sheets", since Google & co make their money by selling everywhere except for China.

Anthropic and OpenAI are never entering China on a massive scale. US relations with Europe are deteriorating and LLMs are <<massive> risks in an adversarial relation so it's not inconceivable Europe at some point starts marginalizing US tech companies, at least LLM labs. I imagine India will want to do something similar at some point.

Where exactly is Anthropic going to make all that steady revenue from, if it can't break out of coding and cybersecurity? Even worse, both those markets are super tech savvy so those cheap rivals are even more dangerous. One slip up the next 5+ years and Anthropic is history.