my simplified take is the headwind is on two ends - smaller models being sufficient enough & open weight models then second utility of 'a.i' is maximal when deployed with humans i.e engineers applying a.i on top of current applications putting an agent layer on top.

the second part is not sexy - but we see all a.i labs having fde arms e.g ode, microsoft frontier company etc but then again that's the part you can't hype.