| ▲ | flowerlad 6 hours ago |
| Oracle does not have any proprietary IP that OpenAI depends on. That means Oracle is providing commodity services to OpenAI. AI hardware is advancing rapidly. If NVIDIA's next generations deliver radically more tokens per watt and per dollar, an Oracle facility designed, financed, and contracted around an older GPU generation can be overtaken before it is fully online or fully monetized. That's a big risk. And to finance this they are making deep cuts to the ERP business where Oracle does have proprietary IP. |
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| ▲ | balarjin 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > If NVIDIA's next generations deliver radically more tokens per watt and per dollar, > an Oracle facility designed, financed, and contracted around an older GPU > generation can be overtaken before it is fully online or fully monetized. Every user of Nvidia's gear has thought of this, and Nvidia provides a solution: Newer components are (usually) compatible with older racks, and Nvidia will buy back parts you replace with newer hardware. For example, let's say you have an NV72 with Blackwell-ultra. Rubin comes out, and you decide you want to upgrade. There is a SKU of Rubin designed specifically to work in the racks shipped with Blackwell. Use it, and you only need to replace the compute board (not the power system, cooling, networking, etc.) Nvidia will buy back the Blackwell boards you remove (and sell them to someone else, with a warrantee). If you want to do an upgrade that increases power use, you may have to get a new rack. All of the parts are modular, and all parts can be sold back to Nvidia. Nvidia does this because they have to. Without it, many customers would consider other vendors when upgrading, or delay purchases in case something better comes along later. |
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| ▲ | dktp 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I would be very very curious in some source of these Nvidia buybacks | |
| ▲ | lossolo 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > you only need to replace the compute board "Only" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here, considering that this compute board makes up the majority of the cost. And if they start going with bigger designs, like they’re doing now (compute in memory, custom TPUs etc), then even this won't hold. > If you want to do an upgrade that increases power use, you may have to get a new rack. Blackwell to Rubin upgrade is exactly that case.
3x3U 110 kW units vs the 8×1U 33 kW shelves typical in GB300 NVL72, power whip rating rises to 100A from 60A, rack coolant flow doubles versus GB300, and both compute and NVSwitch trays are fanless, 190-230 kW per rack depending on power mode vs about 140 kW for GB300 NVL72 and NVLink switching is new too etc And where is your source about buyback program? I found no Nvidia trade in or buyback program for data center hardware. Used gear is resold through third parties, ITAD vendors like Procurri and Bitpro buy and resell used GPUs from hyperscalers, and resellers like Alta Technologies sell refurbished units with warranties. The closest real thing is a financing arrangement announced in August where Nvidia partnered with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, and others and in SOME CASES may provide residual value support for up to 25% of an opportunity, assessed project by project. So in practice, if a borrower defaults and the lender has to liquidate GPUs that can't fetch their booked value, Nvidia covers part of the shortfall. That backstops lenders. It is not a buyback for customers who upgrade. | |
| ▲ | gessha 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | What does Nvidia do with the parts they buy back? Resell to others or grind to dust? | | |
| ▲ | Danox 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Forward them to their, partner Microsoft… | | | |
| ▲ | jsiepkes 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I doubt NVidia wants thriving second hand market, so I would guess grind to dust? | |
| ▲ | mschuster91 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | resell them? there is a decent market for people fine with less efficient, already used gear. |
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| ▲ | hedora 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The real shame with all of this is that when (not if) the AI bubble pops, it's going to be like the 1990's, when there was a huge supply of unix workstations, etc. The difference is that none of this Nvidia gear can run on normal 120V (or even 240V) circuits, so it'll end up going to the landfill or just being powered down in place. | | |
| ▲ | elevation 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | If I acquire some cheap H200s, I intend to build a rack mount power supply that I can feed from a dryer plug. 4x H200's need about 2.8KW, which you could pull from a standard 240VAC 20A dryer/oven breaker [0]. [0]: https://www.sunbirddcim.com/blog/nvidia-h200-power-requireme... | | |
| ▲ | elorant 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | 2.8KWs is just the GPUs. Add another 400 watt for CPUs and RAM and the rest of the hardware, and then leave at least a 30% headroom for PSU loss and spikes. Suddenly you're close to 4KW. And then of course you'd have to remove all that heat from the room. | | |
| ▲ | irishcoffee an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | So... a 30A breaker instead of a 20A breaker? And a few hundred bucks creating a venting solution to the outside? I could set this up at my house right now, by myself, in a day, maybe 2. | |
| ▲ | olyjohn an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yeah? My shop at home has two 4kw electric heaters in it. That's not even a big deal to wire up to your main panel. |
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| ▲ | cowlevel 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | What does it run on? | | |
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| ▲ | jmyeet 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I'm not really sure they have thought this through. Or at least their solution has been to essentially insulate the company and even the physical building from the debt used to buy the GPUs. These SPVs typically lease the building and secure the debt to the GPUs themselves so if it all goes pear-shaped, it'll be the debtholders who are left holding the bag, priamrily. But I have questions: 1. How often do GPUs fail? I've seen figures that this is as high as 9% annual failure rate for DC GPUs; 2. How easy is it to get replacement stock? At what cost? 3. If you trade in, what value do you get for your GPUs? 4. What is the availability like? How does NVidia decide who gets the next wave of GPUs? That's NVidia's big power here. It's a bit like how Boeing and Airbus decide on customer order and if you upset them, you may lose other orders. This happened to Qatar Airways over the A380 [1]. 5. How long are the current form factors and interfaces going to last? How long before the power requirements get larger than what DCs are currently built for? Blackwell GPUs use a lot more power than, say, 2 or even 1 generation ago did. GPUs are a huge cost factor, allegedly more than 50% of the cost of a data center [2]. If you take a bath on the trade in and are forced to do it because you can't compete with the current generation's performance-per-watt, that's not a good situation to be in. [1]: https://www.arabnews.com/business/qatar-airways-in-mystery-a... [2]: https://orennia.com/insights/what-it-actually-costs-to-build... |
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| ▲ | kev009 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I'm no fan of Oracle, but you could make the same claim about land developers, or datacenter operators, or REITs. Or a random conglomerate like Unileaver or GE or Siemens. Ultimately, someone has to provide "commodities", and if you think your ship is the right vessel to do it betting hard on this is some kind of strategic direction. Whether they are right, and to what extent debtors and the market will put up with cyclic and performance issues, etc.. I certainly won't hold the stock, but I wouldn't have earlier either. |
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| ▲ | flowerlad 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Commodity products can't demand high profit margins. Supermarkets typically have 1% to 3% net profit margin. SaaS often has 70% to 85% profit margins. Data centers hover around 15%. You don't want to sacrifice a high profit margin business in order to gain share in a low profit margin one. | | |
| ▲ | nonethewiser a few seconds ago | parent [-] | | >Supermarkets typically have 1% to 3% net profit margin. SaaS often has 70% to 85% profit margins Different types of margin. 1-3% for groceries is net, 70-85% for software is gross. |
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| ▲ | chasil 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This previous [flagged] post implies that a natural gas line blocked by regulatory action is holding an Oracle data center offline: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49978367 https://archive.ph/jDXdm I understand that trucking the natural gas into the generation plant is one workaround. "For this whole layered scheme [of Project Jupiter] to work, the campus needs as much power as a major city — think Los Angeles. Hooking into the existing grid turned out to be a problem. The workaround: generate power on site with fuel cells running on natural gas. ”The gas is supposed to come through a new pipeline spur that still has to be built. Most of the route crosses federal land, but about half a mile runs across state land. And that’s exactly where everything got stuck: on March 31, 2026, the New Mexico State Land Office denied the right-of-way, and on July 16 it rejected the second application. The pipeline, originally due to go online in August 2026, has been pushed back to February 2027. ”On top of that, the air permit for the entire power system still hasn’t been issued: the state Environment Department’s decision isn’t expected before November 23. ”Meanwhile, local opposition keeps gaining ground — as does the nationwide movement against hyperscale data centers." |
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| ▲ | matt3210 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Rubin is supposed to be 10x ... I hope b300 prices crash and I can pick up a few |
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| ▲ | halamadrid 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Sometimes I wonder if the people committing and spending this much money is really thinking about this or not? My feeling is there is some kind of upgrade packaging done here. Like if the chips advance by X factor it can be offered at a massive discount or something? Otherwise it seems so silly to buy so much hardware which is evolving so fast. |
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| ▲ | 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
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| ▲ | dzonga 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| larry's big ego couldn't take it - being left out of the hypetrain. he was living good - enjoying massive profits from his various moats but nah he had to risk it for the paramount deal, then stargate. |
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| ▲ | arisAlexis 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| ERPs are done. Data center permits, space, contracts to buy scarse GPUs and energy are the moats today. The chips can provide more tokers per watt but the world needs exponentially more tokens each day |
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| ▲ | AgharaShyam 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Curious to know why you think ERPs are done. I actually do somewhat agree with you in that their best days are behind them. It is going to be incredibly difficult to bill outrageous amounts for armies of consultant to implement or customise the product when agents can do the same for much less, or at-least a 5-10x reduction in headcount for similar complexity of changeset. If anyone is in the industry, please feel free to chime in as to what you are seeing on the ground. | | |
| ▲ | 10111001 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Curious to know why you think ERPs are done. I actually do somewhat agree with you in that their best days are behind them. > It is going to be incredibly difficult to bill outrageous amounts for armies of consultant to implement or customise the product when agents can do the same for much less, or at-least a 5-10x reduction in headcount for similar complexity of changeset. > If anyone is in the industry, please feel free to chime in as to what you are seeing on the ground. I do not deal with ERPs, but my understanding is that one of their big selling points has to do with financial audit compliance. They're big complex, hulking things, but battle-tested an trusted. If you use one, your auditor can just check off the box, but if you use custom software, then the auditor has to audit that too (in order to make sure you get really complex things like computing tax correctly in each jurisdiction correctly). | | |
| ▲ | cgio 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | They are so custom anyway that auditors need to audit them. Auditor familiarity is a point though. Audit is almost never about numbers, that’s the easy part, it’s about controls. Numbers will almost always come out right, the challenge is how they come in. |
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| ▲ | SilasX 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| >Oracle does not have any proprietary IP that OpenAI depends on. That means Oracle is providing commodity services to OpenAI. Huh? Is Oracle's plan with this funding to provide compute services for the big AI specialist companies? I assumed it was a buildout for their own AI services, as you're right, the former wouldn't make sense. (At risk of making a trollish, low-effort comment, OpenAI/Anthropic are savvy compute users and would have to be insane to risk getting entangled with Oracle.) I read the article and I couldn't tell from it which of these is the case. |
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| ▲ | jurgenburgen 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Yet, entangle they did: https://openai.com/index/five-new-stargate-sites > In July, OpenAI and Oracle entered an agreement to develop up to 4.5 gigawatts of additional Stargate capacity. This represents a partnership that exceeds $300 billion between the two companies over the next five years. | | |
| ▲ | hedora 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | When this all unwinds, I suspect that deal will have Trump's fingerprints all over it. There will also be sort of graft that screws over taxpayers, and somehow the money will never be returned. |
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| ▲ | flowerlad 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > their own AI services Oracle doesn't have any. And that's wise. Oracle makes good RDBMS servers. They suck at everything else. | | |
| ▲ | nradov 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Their JVM doesn't suck. | | |
| ▲ | flowerlad an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | It was invented by Sun Microsystems, acquired by Oracle and now developed by engineers from Red Hat, SAP, Amazon, IBM, Google, and others. | |
| ▲ | HDThoreaun 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Is that why java is such a popular language these days? | | |
| ▲ | solyin 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It is. If your media diet consists of HN and reddit you'd think people actually use Rust, but judging by who's hiring for what according to Indeed, Java is 3rd after Python and JavaScript, and Rust doesn't even rank. | |
| ▲ | nradov 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yes, it's extremely popular. No matter how you count it's at least in the top 10 programming languages for new code being written. And there are several other niche languages that also target the JVM. |
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| ▲ | bigyabai 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| On strictly business terms, you're absolutely correct. Considering that OpenAI and Oracle both eat from Trump's hand though, I think that Larry Ellison has a few tricks up his sleeve to remain a "necessary" contractor. This is probably a shorter-term investment to pad out the coffers 5-10 years from now. If rampant despotism is the end-goal, Oracle has already aligned themselves with the despots. |