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▲ ai-x 2 hours ago

No. This is opportunity cost.

A clear example is Google. They can easily give all compute to Deepmind, yet majority is allocated to be sold at market rate.

So, every compute Deepmind and Googlers get is lost revenue opportunity and must be measured as such.

No other internal tools or servers has this much external demand to be comparable.

Also, Anthropic is showing that to operate at Anthropic level, you need $300,000 compute spend per employee

▲adjejmxbdjdn 13 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> No. This is opportunity cost.

It’s not opportunity cost. It would be opportunity cost if their employees not using it would lead to additional revenue. However, if Inwas to go to Anthropic and double my token usage Anthropic wouldn’t decline my money. If Anthropic’s employees would stop using Claude, their revenues wouldn’t increase by an equivalent amount.

Their revenues are not currently supply constrained.

It’s just a cost cost. If their employees stopped using these services they would simply need less infrastructure, and therefore save on the cost to build and run that infrastructure. It wouldn’t translate into an increase in revenue.

▲com2kid 30 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Also, Anthropic is showing that to operate at Anthropic level, you need $300,000 compute spend per employee

They have infinite money to burn so they aren't going to optimize.

I've seen that trivial changes to workflows can token usage by 30%. Repeat this a few times and my token usage has plummeted over the last few months.

Only outputting test failures instead of having agents read test run output in real time. Not having build logs get fed into context. Projects like UCL (unified context layer) so agents don't rediscover the same facts about a code base again and again.

Giving tools agent output modes so they only print out the minimal info needed for an agent to get work done.

When I hear a company has an absurd AI spend I assume they aren't even trying to reign it in.

▲mattbrewsbytes 5 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There is a huge difference between Anthropic and Google dog-fooding: Anthropic does not own or build data centers, they rent (as far as all the reporting on this I've read). Anthropic employees dog-fooding with Claude tools isn't "internal", its most likely being run on external AI data center compute, which they have to pay for, there's just no margin on it. It might even be run out of Google's data centers.

▲bunderbunder an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I don't buy it. A company like Anthropic is not going to just walk away from revenue. If external demand were really that high, then they should take the money first. And not just for the revenue; customer demand being that high is also an indication that the product is already great as-is so they stand to improve their bottom line by easing off on the R&D spend.

▲MikhailTal 28 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> by easing off on the R&D spend

you could not be more wrong, you cannot IPO if you say product is good enough. The whole point, the bet why its worth trillions is because they will reach AGI and "singularity" first, so the gap vs open source will only increase. If you say product is great as is, then you will be caught up and game over

▲bunderbunder 12 minutes ago | parent [-]

I didn’t say stop, I said ease off.

Acting like they’re constantly racing to catch up is not the rift behavior for a company that’s trying to present itself as a relatively stable market leader. It’s behavior that’s more consistent with a company whose leadership believes, for whatever reason, that their current position is insecure.

re: AGI and the singularity, I don’t have anything really to say to that. Nobody even has a working operational definition of AGI yet, let alone a clear roadmap for what technical challenges need to be solved to get us there, let alone even the beginnings of an estimate of what it might cost or how long it might take. Nor is there a story for how that will lead immediately to Kurzweil’s technological singularity that amounts to much more than waving one’s hands and shouting, “But wouldn’t it be exciting if it were true?” Treating that as if it were even a sketch of an actual business plan isn’t rational due diligence; it’s just chasing buzzwords.

▲lnkdinsuxs 23 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> If external demand were really that high, then they should take the money first

AI infrastructure is supply constrained, so you have to make a decision: how much do I allocate to training vs inference?

Do I use it all for inference and do no further training? If so, what risks does that expose me to?

▲segfaultex 18 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

It’s supply constrained for now, the moment companies like Anthropic have to switch to profit-making-mode, demand will dip as the prices skyrocket imo.

▲bunderbunder 11 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

Supply constrained companies don’t typically offer 50% discounts.

▲realitysballs 39 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Not if you’re desperately trying to stay ahead of AI frontier pack.

▲jknoepfler 20 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

It's complete bologna. Basic GAAP accounting eliminates intra-company service consumption/sales. Looking at cloud compute, say, Amazon "bills" departments for AWS cloud compute consumption, but reporting internal cloud compute consumption as a thing they were doing assuming the rates charged to their least efficient customer would be beyond meaningless.

▲skybrian an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It depends on your assumptions. When Google is in "space crunch" mode, there are opportunity costs. Otherwise, there aren't, because you could do both.

You could also look at the opportunity cost of not letting Deepmind do quite as much research. How much is additional research worth on the margin? There will be diminishing returns.

▲RandomLensman an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

So every business should measure any client fungible resource that way? Should a bank put a revenue number to any capital held in excess of regulatory requirements, for example?

▲woah 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They also offer $300,000 in compute spend (allegedly) for $200 a month to anyone who isn't employed by a large corporation so their pricing should be taken with a grain of salt.

▲gruez 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

>$300,000 in compute spend (allegedly)

source? The most optimistic calculations don't come anywhere close to that.

https://x.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2064815044085318040

▲Aurornis 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Usage allowances have decreased since that analysis. Also the 20X plan became the 10X plan (cut in half).

▲technotony an hour ago | parent [-]

It was never 20x, that was just 5 hour usage limits. There's a class action on this...

▲Aurornis 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Are you talking about their $200 consumer plan? If you use 100% of the quota every week it's closer to $2000 at API rates.

They have never claimed that the API rates are the "real cost" of the compute spend.

▲stymaar 23 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> If you use 100% of the quota every week it's closer to $2000 at API rates.

I don't know where you got that from but the only time I maxed my $20 plan for a week I made the calculation that I had spend close to $200 in a single week. So maxing a $200 plan for a month should give you $8000 worth of token at API price. Obviously it's not $300k but it's still very far from the retail price.

▲Aurornis 10 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> but the only time I maxed my $20 plan for a week I made the calculation that I had spend close to $200 in a single week. So maxing a $200 plan for a month should give you $8000 worth of token at API price.

$200 of usage on a $20/mo plan is a 10X multiplier.

The $200/month plan has 10X the usage of the $20/month plan.

So $200 * 10X = $2000/month. I don't know how you got to $8000.

Recent analysis by industry analysts like Semi Accurate have measured Sol 6.1 on the $200/month plan to be around $2000 of API equivalent use.

▲icedchai 11 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

I get a LOT of mileage out of my $20 plan. It's at least $500+ a week at API rates. I sometimes wonder if there's something wrong with their billing system.

▲sigseg1v an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

On the $200* consumer plan, according to "npx ccusage", I'm using $11,000 per month at API rates. Possibly significantly more, because I was previously using the $100 plan so that only reflects about 1 week of the $200 plan.

▲woah 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I was spending thousands of dollars a day in funny money (free promotional tokens from VCs) before switching to a paid subscription for convenience.

▲whimsicalism 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

i don't understand why so many people on this site comment on issues they clearly do not know anything about

▲ an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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▲aleqs 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Obvious bullshit that's been disproven many times already.

▲Rapzid 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The price is the price, everything else is bullshit.

▲robrenaud 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Anthropic is showing that to operate at Anthropic level, you need $300,000 compute spend per employee

You have confused necessary and sufficient.

▲ 2 hours ago | parent [-]
[deleted]
▲neya 10 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> No. This is opportunity cost.

This is NOT the definition of opportunity cost. Please do not throw in random terms you don't understand. Opportunity cost is the value of the next best alternative you give up whenever you make a choice. WTF does it have to do with mis-classifying an expense?

▲cortesoft 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> So, every compute Deepmind and Googlers get is lost revenue opportunity and must be measured as such

Maybe, but it also reduces supply that can drive up prices

▲hackingonempty 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Also, Anthropic is showing that to operate at Anthropic level, you need $300,000 compute spend per employee

There are a bunch of open source harnesses that are competitive with CC and they aren't using anywhere near that many tokens to do it.

▲ako an hour ago | parent | next [-]

It's not just the LLM costs, to keep your agents busy you need to move them of your workstation onto a server/cloud. I currently have about 16 claude code agents working on different bugs, uses so much resources that my macbook pro m5 max becomes slow to respond. Using cloud session would free up my macbook for other work.

Anthropic recently handed out free cloud resources (it's still free, guess they want you to get used to the fact that cloud is not free). I went through $250 cloud budget in less than 2 days.

Feels almost as expensive as LLM calls.

▲eyegor an hour ago | parent | next [-]

I'm impressed you have a workflow that can keep 16 separate agents fed without the whole thing collapsing into nonsense. Even running full agent teams I can't think of ways to do that without being intentionally inefficient

▲ako 11 minutes ago | parent [-]

I let one agent categorize all bugs, then have it decide which clusters of bugs should be addressed together, and which ones can be addressed in parallel.

▲Rabbit504030201 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You call your laptop "workstation"?

▲ako 7 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

6 years ago i had a lenovo thinkpad p1, branded by lenovo as a portable workstation. Today i have macbook pro m5 max, much faster and more powerful than the lenovo, so why not call it a workstation?

▲glimshe an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Technically it is... According the original vision for workstation, a computer with >1MB RAM, >1 megapixel of screen resolution, >1 MIPS and costing under 1 Mega cents (10K dollars).

However, so is my phone!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M_computer

▲ariwilson an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

just get a mac mini headless

▲bluefirebrand an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Wouldn't that depend on how much hardware you have to run them on, too?

▲throwitaway222 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Not really- since they have an internal view of low and high usage times of the day, they can optimize differently.

Even within a single moment, if there is capacity for an internal request, just send it, if market traffic is currently at 100%, don't.

▲aleqs 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

By 'operate at Anthropic level', you mean terrible reliability and availability, and terrible efficiency right?

▲fwip an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If it were opportunity cost, that would imply that Anthropic can't sell as many tokens as people want to buy. But as far as I can tell, there aren't any "token shortages," at least at API prices. Or is there a maximum per-customer limit that I'm not aware of?

▲nullsanity an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

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