I was the one who mentioned Nate Silver as well. That case does not undermine his skill. The 538 model's track record over hundreds of thousands of forecasts was, statistically, extremely good.

https://web.archive.org/web/20250306130304/https://projects....

Holding a forecaster to a standard of "Silver must get 100% of predictions correct or else he's a fucking moron" is, in itself, a sign of low critical thinking skills.