Polymarket [0] thinks it's 55% Anthropic, 38% google by the end of the year. Anthropic /OAI 62% combined.

[0] https://polymarket.us/event/company1-2026-12-31

That market resolves using the arena.ai text leaderboard, where Argon was already #1 over Opus 5.5. Coding is way more economically consequential, and I think the current gap between Anthropic and Google is very wide there (at least, before this Carbon release)

	▲	MostlyStable 7 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		That's a good point. The coding specific question (which still uses the arena.ai leaderboard, just the coding version instead of text version), has Anthropic at 66% at Anthropic/OAI at just shy of 80%. That's probably more representative even if Arena.ai isn't my favorite benchmarking site. Actually....looking in more depth I may have to upgrade to something stronger than "not my favorite benchmarking site". The first OAI model on there is GPT 5.4 at 31....that's not really credible. https://polymarket.us/event/code1-2026-12-31
	▲	nostrebored 6 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		I’ve been primarily using agy cli and argon for the last week and I’m fairly satisfied. Rarely am I looking to go back to opus and it seems much much better at model training and conceptual math