In a way I wish this would become true, and to some extent I believe it will (excitement will go down, and some part of the bubble will burst). But I can't fully see it happening this way, these tools are just so disruptive in so many different areas... perhaps not all, but it can speed up the development of almost anything so I don't see it disappearing. I hope it'll help improving its own efficiency as well so we can still get rid of some of the datacenters (or at least stop building more of them), but I don't see it going away as "just another tool", it really sits on top of other tools I think.

If the goal is genuine artificial intelligence (or artificial cognition), and I think it is, then an LLM can only ever be a piece of that puzzle, they represent the language center of the AI brain. True cognitive intelligence will require a completely new and novel technology that doesn't yet exist and it will itself rely on a language model for all its powerful reasoning tools. Reasoning is only part of cognition, the role of an LLM in the AI puzzle.