People have been saying the openweight models would collapse anthropic's revenue since the deepseek moment in January of 2025. They've stayed ahead in model intelligence and increased revenue by a lot since then.

Not saying it couldn't happen in the future, but we've got to be circumspect about that narrative after almost 2 years of it, no?

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riknos314 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

How much of that revenue is usage from hosting partners (AMZN, M$, etc) who have a vested interest in using Anthropic instead of open weights though?

	▲	JacobAsmuth 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Well then the fact that those hosting partners have 10+ year commitments should make you pretty confident then, right?

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afavour 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

January 2025 isn’t even two years ago yet. When you’re talking about giant companies going public you want to be looking at significantly longer timescales than that.

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ex-aws-dude 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Why would you be circumspect if the gap kept getting closer?

Doesn't that indicate its becoming _more_ true?

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sigmar 2 hours ago | parent [-]

What is the evidence the gap is closing? Seems like it has been the same "6 months behind" since Jan 2025. The first fable was trained in march and we still don't have an openweight model as capable

	▲	bel8 an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Not everything needs SOTA (State of the Art). If you control for cost, not only the gap closed, but it switched already. DeepSeek 4.1 Flash dominates perf/cost for suitable tasks. And if you do need SOTA, Kimi 3.1 Pro scores 55 on https://artificialanalysis.ai vs 58 of Opus 5.5. And they were released 1 month appart. Kimi even outperforms Opus on some tasks because it doesn't downgrade its intelligente on cyber and cryptography workloads or ban you if you use it for LLM research. So the gap is 1 month, or zero, depending on your needs.