| ▲ | bhouston 16 hours ago |
| It is amazing that solar, a ridiculous cheap and easy to install solution is winning the energy future. In the past, based mostly on playing SimCity, I would have thought that Nuclear and then Fusion was the future, but solar does seem to be winning and pretty thoroughly. I guess this is in part because it only needs amazing factories and not complex deployed and maintained infrastructure that is at risk of blowing up. Solar seems to fix the mould of a disruptive technology to a T. |
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| ▲ | pfdietz 16 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Games like SimCity just embody the assumptions that are designed into them, and there's no reason to think the designer was any more prescient than anyone else. After all, if they could predict the future, why did they design a game rather than get rich in the stock market? |
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| ▲ | beanshadow 16 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The user probably isn't suggesting the designers of SimCity are prescient; it's just that the assumptions that are designed into these games are clear reflections of the social perspective at the time. Assumptions like these tend to have inertia through time, and the user is likely just pointing out their surprise at the change. | |
| ▲ | bhouston 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I am not saying that SimCity predicts the future, rather I had assumptions growing up in that period, probably similar to everyone else at the time, that Nuclear and Fusion were the future of energy. It is cool to see that shift so soundly to solar in just two decades. | | |
| ▲ | pfdietz 16 hours ago | parent [-] | | It's useful to go back and figure out why you believed that. Treat it as debugging your thinking. Others were saying, even back then, that nuclear and fusion had predictable economic problems. | | |
| ▲ | bhouston 15 hours ago | parent [-] | | SimCity 2000 with Fusion plants was released in 1993. To predict that solar would do this back then is asking a lot - this graph doesn't even start in 1993: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/installed-solar-pv-capaci... | | |
| ▲ | pfdietz 15 hours ago | parent [-] | | Fusion was predicted to be an economic nonstarter at least a decade before that. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20782346 (Needless to say, I don't have a high opinion of current fusion start ups.) And fission already had the financial fiasco of the first nuclear build out in the US. Solar could have been predicted to get really cheap, if one had heroically projected its experience curve into the future. A lot of people chickened out doing that, even Greenpeace. | | |
| ▲ | bhouston 15 hours ago | parent [-] | | This is a ridiculous demand to make of an early teen in the pre-internet era. You know how hard it was to get information on arbitrary subjects back then like this? | | |
| ▲ | pfdietz 15 hours ago | parent [-] | | That's fair, but it's also fair to ask the now middle aged person to understand their youthful errors, and to reflect on what other errors they made and might still be making. |
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| ▲ | sheikhnbake 16 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | They predicted they had a better chance of getting rich off the game as opposed to the stock market |
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| ▲ | aitchnyu 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Do you remember the microwave antenna power stations that power from solar satellites? The Moore-like drop of solar prices killed solar satellites, solar greenhouses with turbine chimneys, TW superconductor submarine cables circling the world etc. |
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| ▲ | rtkwe 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Nuclear /could/ have solved this years ago but the spectacular and scary nature of failures like TMI or Chernobyl [0] really sunk any chance of that happening. Plus you had all the traditional nonrenewable energy providers intensely interested in stoking fears of that and the question of nuclear fuel storage. [0] Yes pollution from normal everyday fossil fuel power generation causes more damage and deaths in the aggregate but it's a diffuse hard to attribute kind of damage which makes it far less, for lack of a better way to say it, real to people. eg: Did living downwind of that unupgraded coal plant really kill them or is their death because of something else. |
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| ▲ | rootusrootus 16 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Price probably played a pretty big role, too. The up front cost of a new nuclear plant is eye watering. Hard to compete against solar & battery these days which can be spun up in months and cost comparatively pennies. | | |
| ▲ | rtkwe 15 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | That's also true, partially driven by a lot of hurdles and time spent fighting for approval due to the anti-nuclear push due to the things I mentioned, but it is also just expensive to build in the US because our labor and land is pretty expensive too. | | |
| ▲ | triceratops 14 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Is there a study that pinpoints which nuclear regulations are unnecessary and how much they add to the LCoE of a nuke plant? | | |
| ▲ | rtkwe 13 hours ago | parent [-] | | I'm thinking more of the cycles of community approval that can drag on and delay the project rather than individual ongoing regulations. | | |
| ▲ | triceratops 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | Why are these rounds of community consultation allowed? Surely legislatures ought to be able to pre-empt them. | | |
| ▲ | no-name-here 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Disallow community input just for building nuclear in a community, or also disallow community input for all public and private zoning, and infrastructure proposals, transit proposals, etc? |
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| ▲ | BobaFloutist 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I mean concrete is also just really expensive. A lot of the cost is labor, yes, but still. |
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| ▲ | pfdietz 16 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | And the price was escalating even before TMI and Chernobyl. |
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| ▲ | jmyeet 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Nuclear has to be the most cultish topic on HN, I swear. Anything less than full-throated support for nuclear gets downvoted into oblivion and it simply doesn't matter how well-reasoned those views are. To borrow the meme about LISP [1], if nuclear was so good, it would've caught on at any point in the last 80 years. And it hasn't for some good reasons: - It's too expensive. As an example, Hinkley Point-C in the UK has a super high negotiated rate that only lasts 35 years for a plant that still needs a lifetime of 60 to justify the investment so who knows how expensive the power will be for those last 25 years; - It takes too long to build, typically ~20 years; - Fuel processing (to create the fuel rods) creates a lot of harmful waste (eg UF6) and it is not a solved problem; - Processing of spent fuel is not a solved problem. There's this idea that you just stick it in a barrel and leave it for a thousand years doesn't match the reality. It typically needs active cooling for possibly decades, for a start; - Failure modes for a single plant dwarf any other alternative. The standard counterpoint is global warming from fossil fuels but that's for the entire fossil fuel ecosystem. The clean up for Fukushima, for example, will likely take over a century and cost over $1 trillion; - The taxpayer bears the burden for these failures because, in the US for example, the industry self-insurance fund is a couple of orders magnitude too small to cover it; - Nuclear requires liability limits well below any such failure mode to make it remotely economical (eg the Price-Anderson Act liability limits); - The ecosystem of building, maintaining, repairing, servicing, monitoring and regulating nuclear power plants as well as all the supply chains (eg transporting and storing fuel) takes a long time to scale up. I really wish I understood why nuclear has this cult-like following. It's completely irrational. [1]: https://paulgraham.com/iflisp.html | | |
| ▲ | dpkirchner 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > I really wish I understood why nuclear has this cult-like following. It's completely irrational. I believe it is largely because it is so unviable. If you can shut down any power supply argument with "but muh nuclear" then you can ensure that we keep burning coal and gas forever. And as a bonus, you get to pretend you're the smartest person in the room for having come up with the only good solution. | |
| ▲ | kortilla 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > I really wish I understood why nuclear has this cult-like following. It's completely irrational. Because “cost” is not an argument against something that hasn’t been scaled. Nuclear was snuffed in the crib before any repeatable plants could be brought online. If you looked at the cost of solar in 1995, using it to power anything like a house was a complete joke. It had to fall over an order of magnitude and leave behind a trail of solar company corpses to get to a point where you can break even after 10 years putting them on a house. Solar and wind need storage to make a complete solution, so when it comes to climate change discussions, you just end up with two “irrational” groups arguing about the optimistic potential things that don’t actually exist at an affordable cost. | |
| ▲ | MisterMower 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It did catch on, and then it was regulated beyond the point of profitability, and nuclear plants stopped being built. The points you make are only true because of the unique regulatory regime that nuclear plants exist under. We tolerate all kinds of externalities from fossil fuel energy production and environmental degradation due to rare earth mining required to produce solar panels and wind turbines. Nuclear energy is the only industry required to mitigate all possible externalities, and for that reason it is very expensive. It’s disingenuous to claim nuclear power is a failure because it’s expensive to build without examining the reasons why that might be. For proof it can work and is both safe and economical, witness the Chinese currently building 40 new nuclear plants. We could do that here, but choose not to. The only missing ingredient is political will, and resistance from ill-informed people such as yourself. | | |
| ▲ | jmyeet an hour ago | parent [-] | | > ... regulated beyond the point of profitability I love this argument because it's never qualified. What regulations exactly make nuclear unaffordable? How many of them are safety related? Is safety not necessary? It's just a hand-wavy argument for nebulous deregulation when all the evidence suggests that no industry is capable of self-regulation. > ... rare earth mining required to produce solar panels ... Solar panels don't require rare earths. > Nuclear energy is the only industry required to mitigate all possible externalities This is just objectively false. Fuel processing, spent fuel processing and storage and failure modes are absolutely not completely mitigated or even solved problems. > For proof it can work and is both safe and economical, witness the Chinese currently building 40 new nuclear plants. Well if 40 power plants are being built, you can't really say that their operational record is that they're "safe and economical" because they have no operational record, right? Now China has other nuclear power plants but you're not arguing with those. China has several advantages no Western country has: 1. A standardized design so economies of scales with components; 2. State subsidies such as ultra-cheap finance; and 3. If people who manage and oversee such plants skimp on such maintenance they'll likely be executed. |
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| ▲ | numpad0 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Solar only works if you 1) live in a standalone house that 2) don't get tornadoes, typhoons, severe rainstorms or other disasters annually, and 3) they are installed on-prem, for off-grid capacities. Games like SimCity often only supports ultradense Manhattan style cities and centralized solar plants through distribution networks. That combination doesn't work with solar technology. It should be like "Set up offgrid solar incentives program($1.5B)" buttons that reduces power draw proportionate to numbers of standalone houses that resets when disaster hits the parts of the map it was used on. |
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| ▲ | hibikir 15 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Interesting perspective. As someone who didn't even grow up in the US, I saw Sim City as a builder of relatively low density, hard zoning cities that had little to do with the high density I grew up in. The idea of commercial zones didn't even make sense to me, as in Spain, such thing doesn't exist. Need for traffic to get to the commercial zones made little sense. Solar seems to be working just fine in Spain, a place where almost nobody lives in a stand alone house, or even a row house. You still put solar in the building, but then you have industrial solar in places wi5 little agricultural value, and wind turbines installed on top of hills. All of this could work just fine in any sim city I remember, as you are just dedicating space to power, which is fine. | | |
| ▲ | kortilla 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Solar is “working just fine” as a way to help contribute daytime generation. It’s only 20% and the storage bit hasn’t been worked out so it’s going to continue to require something to cover the gaps at night. So the gas/coal/nuclear needs to backstop unless the population is good with nighttime blackouts when the wind stops. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Spain |
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| ▲ | hackernud3s 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I live in a place that gets typhoons, but there's probably only one big enough to rip my panels off every once in 5 years. Still, you never know which one it will be and I don't look forward to having to taken mine inside for false alarms. | |
| ▲ | bergie 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I've seen plenty of solar in areas that get hit by hurricanes or tropical cyclones. If your panels get blown to bits, you just put up new panels once the storm is over (or you know, take them down when the storm is forecasted) | | |
| ▲ | numpad0 12 hours ago | parent [-] | | These[1] just keeps happening where I live. This year it was some flooded field ~40mi away from Tokyo station. You can't "just" pick them up as they continue to generate potential as broken panels continue to charge up potentials as long as there's light. IIUC you first carefully put tarps over them. The situation is slightly different for rooftop solar installations, which are equally prone to flying debris as concentrated farms but somewhat less likely to be affected by disasters that the house it is on can withstand. But that would be for off-grid purposes and not for the grid, and my original comment that solar generation only works for on-prem off-grid applies. 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcGo-FMNzdo | | |
| ▲ | bergie 11 hours ago | parent [-] | | On our boat[1] we have deployable solar that we need to take down every time it gets windy so I'm quite familiar with the process. Plan it and it won't be a huge deal. That said, I'm sure there are spots on this planet where solar isn't the best renewable option. Maybe small-scale wind power would be better where you are? On our boat we have both (and hydro for when we're sailing). Sadly these mechanical generators haven't yet received similar scale effects to their price as solar has. 1: https://lille-oe.de/ |
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| ▲ | jmyeet 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | That's a very narrow view of solar. Solar, like any other form of electricity, can be transmitted, even very large distances. There's no reason that places like the US Southwest can't generate a whole bunch of solar and export it to the national grid. Plus below a certain cost threshold, the risk of damage still means the overall cost is lower. |
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| ▲ | Megranium 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Funny that you mention SimCity ... I used to play it (mostly the Nintendo SuperNES/SuperFamicom versions) and nuclear power plants would invariably explode at some point. I guess few people talked about climate change back then because the only drawback to the other power plant types was space usage ... reflecting on it, interesting how the assumptions formed the game ... |
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| ▲ | ghusto 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Well, it is where all energy on Earth originated/originates from :) |
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| ▲ | poszlem 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Another huge reason, I bet is that it's possible for me to have my own solar system, but not really possible to have my own little reactor. |
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| ▲ | maxhille 20 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | I you only need heating, something like this might work https://youtu.be/9Ry4QBQejFU?is=3AXWnkcqHGx01j6e | |
| ▲ | xnorswap 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > it's possible for me to have my own solar system Finally, some much needed progress towards Sagan's apple pie. | |
| ▲ | dv_dt 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | If its any consolation, with your solar system you have a shared massive fusion reactor | |
| ▲ | numpad0 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The simplest form of a nuclear reactor is some small sphere of purified heavy metal put onto a cavity on a thick Be sphere and covered by another piece of the same metal. The reactor can be started up and shut down by lowering or lifting the top piece using a flathead screwdriver shoved between two pieces, which can kill anybody nearby if dropped and the pieces go ultra super critical. That has to be a lot simpler than even a basic solar cell by itself. | | |
| ▲ | triceratops 14 hours ago | parent [-] | | Surely this is satire. The reference to the screwdriver is what convinced me it is. |
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| ▲ | bhouston 16 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The nature of disruptive solutions is that they can be adopted easily at the bottom of the market - which means in this case people like you rather than at the centrally planned utility. |
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| ▲ | jeffbee 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Solar is fusion. It is optically coupled to a free resource that was on the map from the beginning of the first turn. |
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| ▲ | cyanydeez 16 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| It needs mines, but those are easily forgotten about once the blood money is washed through a few hands. Nuclear's problem, despite it's Champions assertion that it's now safe and properly engineered, is it's still inherently dirty and that dirt follows it through out it's life. It also probably has bloody mines, but every step on the path of using nuclear requires security and safety, and even when it's disposed, it still requires safety and security. It loses because no one trusts anyone along the entire value chain to not cut corners that leads to unsafe practices. |
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| ▲ | numpad0 15 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Nuclear waste materials aren't hard to dispose of, they just have extremely high abuse potential. That's why they have to be safely stored for million years away from civilization, so that they cannot be dug up by current and future terrorists. I think there was some ex-French colony government that demanded France disclose details of nuclear waste burial sites for "safety" reasons, which France rejected. Which means it happens. That kind of thing is why nuclear wastes are supposedly and actually so "dangerous" and small private owned generators get "complicated". | |
| ▲ | bhouston 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Yeah, Nuclear is one of those solutions where in an ideal world it makes sense, but in the real world it is just too complex all around make it work. | |
| ▲ | parineum 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It's not like solar panels don't use raw materials. It's from 2022, so probably outdated. > According to the US Department of Energy (DOE), about 12% of all silicon metal produced worldwide (also known as “metallurgical-grade silicon” or MGS) is turned into polysilicon for solar panel production. China produces about 70% of the world’s MGS and 77% of the world’s polysilicon. Converting silicon to polysilicon requires very high temperatures, and in China it’s coal that largely fuels these plants. Xinjiang—a region in China of abundant coal and low electricity prices—produces 45% of the world’s polysilicon. > Reports indicate that some Xinjiang polysilicon plants have employed forced labor of Uyghurs, an intensely persecuted Muslim ethnic minority. [0] https://blog.ucs.org/charlie-hoffs/mining-raw-materials-for-... | | |
| ▲ | cyanydeez 14 hours ago | parent [-] | | the opening sentence already set the stage my man. you misread it some how. | | |
| ▲ | parineum 12 hours ago | parent [-] | | I guess since we know about the problem and someone wrote an article saying we should fix it, it's taken care of? That doesn't change that you've made a total apples to oranges comparison by using the environmental cost of nuclear fuel to the cost of having a solar panel. Both produce a finite amount of MWh for their lifetime. Both require mining. How much mining and human rights violations exist per unit of energy produced is the metric you're looking for. That's complicated though. Easier to pretend like it's zero for one and non-zero for the other. | | |
| ▲ | chronial 28 minutes ago | parent [-] | | You misread their original post. > It needs mines, but those are easily forgotten about once the blood money is washed through a few hands. This sentence was commenting on solar panels. |
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