> little hard evidence that they’ll generate the revenue (let alone the cashflow) to pay for all these future liabilities

According to the S1:

- FY24 revenue $386 million -> FY25 revenue $4.59 billion (+1,008%)

- Q126 revenue $4.7 billion -> Q26 revenue $11.5 billion (+145%)

That seems like pretty good evidence of current and ongoing explosive growth. Much of this revenue is pre-paid (re: cashflow). Meanwhile, operating margins went from -184% to -$4%.

Seems like pretty good evidence. Will growth continue apace? Unknown. But the arguments for Jevon's paradox applying to intelligence seem pretty convincing, so the TAM here seems likely to be enormous.

> All while everyone is discovering there isn’t really a secret sauce moat to demand

Also not convinced by this. The Chinese models seem to have distilled their way to current levels, with Anthropic and OpenAI now getting serious about defending against this.

I don't think you're definitely wrong in all this. Rather, I think your claims are too confident.