The only thing regulatory capture in the USA will do is to improve the situation for the rest of the world to compete. I wonder how long it will take them to figure that one out, for all their smarts they seem to be incapable of reading a history book.

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petcat 4 hours ago | parent [-]

> improve the situation for the rest of the world to compete

The risk is that USA and China will come together on a joint "AI non-proliferation" agreement in the same way that nuclear technology became restricted by the countries that already had the capability. This will lead to a de facto techno-colonization of the rest of the world just between themselves.

This was a topic of discussion at Trump and Xi's AI summit just last month.

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jacquesm 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Neither Xi nor Trump are going to be able to make that stick. The cat is well out of the bag by now.

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petcat 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Nobody cares about hobby models running on a 5 year old GPU cluster in the basement. This is about industrial-scale AI which, to date, only USA and China have accomplished.

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jacquesm 3 hours ago | parent [-]

If you think that these are hobby models you are simply saying you haven't used them.

One of the largest legal services partnerships here in NL just launched their local DC so they can maintain confidentiality. Do you think they are 'running hobby models on 5 year old GPU clusters in the basement'? Or does a couple of racks of GB300's sound like maybe they know what they're doing after all?

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petcat 3 hours ago | parent [-]

That is microscopic scale compared to what we are talking about. From an investor and "market" perspective, the only AI that matters is the one that's built into every iPhone and Google Android phone, every car, every TV, every smart appliance. The AI models that power ships, planes, and all kinds of robotics. The frontier AI that services the energy grid, and even the smart homes and very structures that we dwell in.

This is all on the horizon. We are only barely scratching the surface and right now it is largely hobbyist having fun with it, but we already see the potential of the AI revolution and where it is going.

	▲	pianopatrick 2 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Seems to me that from an investor perspective, the AI models built into the cars and TVs and other things are likely to be open source. I think long term, due to the high cost of training these models, there is going to be a "Linux of AI". I.e. some model that lots of companies collaborate on and then use for free. The economic logic is the same as that of operating systems. AI models are very expensive for one company to make, but lots of companies need them. So companies are better off collaborating on that side of things and competing on something else. Economically, the AI models that require big servers with lots of GPUs in data centers should likely be more interesting to investors than the AI models that can run on local hardware.
	▲	cman1444 2 hours ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		It matters from the perspective of tech dependency. If a medium/small country deemed it a threat to rely on US/China for AI capabilities, they can get 95% of the utility by banning all American and Chinese models and just using local ones. This contrasts to something like oil or nukes, where if you're not one of the countries blessed with them, you have a serious power imbalance.
	▲	butlike 2 hours ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		And then a random sun flare like in 1859 wipes it all out https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
	▲	jacquesm 3 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Ah, the True Scotsman of 'hobby labs'.