I do not understand 500 billion revenue? I mean how much is that in terms of tokens burned?

It's a misleading number, the 500 billion in revenue is needed over a 10 year period, it's not a yearly figure. Anthropic isn't paying 500 billion a year for the commitments that OP posted, it's paying 500 billion between now and 2036.

	▲	ieeje 8 hours ago \| parent [-]
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binarymax 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

In the simplest calculation, if you get 200M people on a $200/mo pro max plan, that's $500B annual revenue.

This is a "utility" mindset. If you bet that Anthropic is just like a monthly electric bill, then it's within the realm of possibility.

For the record - I don't think that's gonna happen.

	▲	gwd 8 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		FWIW I max out my pro max plan basically every week, not even using Fable any more. I think it's just a matter of people figuring out how to apply tokens effectively.
	▲	stymaar 8 hours ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		I don't think they are betting on that many people subscribing to their $200/mo plan, there's pretty much no upside in using a frontier model for the average consumer. But on the flip side I don't think aiming for 1M businesses spending $40k a month in token in average is going to be more viable. And I'm not sure having 1000 corporations spending $40M a month is a option either.
	▲	techpression 7 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		How many thousand more datacenters would that need, and what would be the ongoing (massive) cost of deprecating hardware in that world?

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Zigurd 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This is the issue, for two reasons: Is there trillions of dollars of demand for LLMs, which is what it takes for Anthropic to make $500 billion in revenue? Is that demand going to be met by frontier cloud LLMs, or by open weight models run by the organizations using them (and cheaper cloud alternatives)?

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ihsw 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

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