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rvz 8 hours ago

We are nearing the final stages of the AI hype cycle and this IPO will cause the acceleration of the crash.

"AGI" was never mentioned once and it was you being the exit liquidity for the insiders and early investors.

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origini 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Why?

Companies like Google will not go bust and can easily afford future develoopment.

Amazon and Microsoft have to keep investing (they can also afford it) to not loos to Google.

What Anthropic and OpenAI are doing is for sure THE frontier (regarding benchmarks, speed etc.) but in paralllel DeepSeek for sure is not bankcrupting anything on their investment side and are also progressing.

Are you only talking about investment itself for a handful of companies? Because alone Nvidia has so many backorders, they can't deliver wht was ordered for the full 2027 and A LOT of peple also want other things from Nvidia or from the industry like Gaming Chips, normal GPUs, Gaming GPUs, Memory etc.

Opus 5.5 just came out and made progress, i'm not seeing any slowdonw on HN regarding new relevant progress in broad ML topics.

So what hype will disappear soon? The progress in the ML space?

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metobehonest 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Two things can be true at once:

- AI is a useful tool and we're still seeing steady improvements in performance and efficiency

- There is a bubble in the stock market, fed by unrealistic expectations of what AI can achieve in the timeframes the investments need to provide returns in (e.g "AI is pretty useful and delivers productivity improvements in coding, law and other desk jobs" vs "in 12 months everyone will be out of a job and/or humanity will be exterminated, AGI is almost here, winner takes all")

So yeah, the schizophrenic Yudkowsky tier hype bullshit should hopefully disappear soon and then we can move on to something else.

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JacobAsmuth 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Okay so you agree that big companies can keep funding this buildout, NVidia (and everyone in their supply chain) is backlogged 18+ months, and there's essentially zero risk of insolvency from any of the major customers, all of whom are committed and able to increase their purchasing (pursuant to their contractual obligations) of AI hardware over the next 3 years?

No one serious cares if there's a bubble in the stock market because the financials are solid and when those play out then whatever "bubble" you imagine exists today will be small compared to realized revenues in a few years.

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metobehonest 4 hours ago | parent [-]

>No one serious cares if there's a bubble in the stock market because the financials are solid

If the financials were "solid" it wouldn't be called a bubble. People are pointing to the bubble saying it's a bubble exactly because the financials are not solid and the expected revenue that would make the valuations and investments make sense is vaporware.

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JacobAsmuth 3 hours ago | parent [-]

People are calling it a bubble because they dont understand the financials.

	▲	metobehonest an hour ago \| parent [-]
		So Warren Buffet and Michael Burry don't understand fundamental analysis and stock market patterns?

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origini 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Some thinktank estimated that there is enough money in the system for reaching 2030 with continues investment.

There are a few numbers of scaling laws, i'm pretty sure VCs want to see being hit. Just to see what will happen when you scale an LLM to 100T Parmeters.

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itomato 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Whomever controls the means of production (TSMC) controls the direction of progress.

Nobody is in control but Taiwan Semiconductor. Not Samsung, not Micron, not Nvidia.

Orders that can't be fulfilled get canceled. Canceled orders mean canceled plans and canceled companies follow.

Someone bigger will buy the husk and monetize it somehow - probably for gambling.

	▲	origini 8 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Sure but thats not the current stauts quo. Nvidia has the chips and the money to pay TSMC. No one else has and in this current setup, the disurption of this particular market is very very very very expensive and time consuming.

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desterothx 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Well the good part is they didn't get an investment grade credit rating, so at least 401ks won't start buying their debt automatically. For now...

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staticman2 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Why do you expect it to crash before the OpenAI IPO?

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empath75 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Anthropic's valuation has nothing to do with AGI and everything to do with claude code.