As much as I hear this sentiment, and as much as all the smart software people around me echo the desire for this sentiment to be true; it feels like people say these things, but then at the same time say - well, Claude/Chatgpt is still marginally better for me now. But clearly they are catching up so maybe one day!!!

In that sense, I'm really not sure if Kimi/chinese models are really competing against Anthropic/OAI? Not to mention that for individuals, the subscription model is extremely different, and Kimi subs are (I think) worse value, and chinese API's maybe marginally end up cheaper than using american subscriptions.

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qlte 25 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

The profit comes from the enterprise customers who have to pay for usage at API rates. Not the subsidized subscriptions, which both OpenAI have designed to be unavailable for large enterprises by withholding IAM and auditing features they need except on the usage based entperise plans.

As an individual I'm still paying for a ChatGPT Plus plan since $20/mo gives me a lot of value and I use many multiples of $20 at API rates per month. But in terms of capabilities, I am entirely satisfied when using my Opencode Go plan with open models like Deepseek Flash/Pro, Kimi and MiMo.

At this point keeping my ChatGPT subscription isn't because of a significant capability gap compared to open models. It's 90% about the value of the subscription priced well below API rates (10% the fun of trying latest models).

If OpenAI/Anthropic dropped their cheap subscriptions or drastically undermined the value proposition I'd be happy using open models exclusively and currently barely notice a difference switching back and forth for the vast majority of tasks.

I'm expecting the subs to increasingly provide less value as the US labs IPO and follow the SV pattern of moving from marketshare capture mode to profit extraction mode. Thankfully I'm already comfortable using OpenCode with open models and avoid lock-in to any specific harness so would be a very soft landing.

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smodo 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Openrouter stats seem to indicate that there is a lot of demand for ‘good enough at a good price.’ After all, not everyone is decompiling PS5 games. In fact, most people are just speedrunning notetaking apps in JavaScript frameworks.

	▲	mbreese 2 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		But, Openrouter stats can only measure the usage they see. I'm not sure it is really all that representative of total LLM usage across the market. I think that's the difference here -- OpenAI and Anthropic are competing more with each other (and Google Gemini) than they are with open weight models. While people on HN are familiar with Kimi and GLM models, I'm not sure how many casual users of LLMs know about them. I think the competitive risk open weight models pose to OpenAI and Anthropic is much further in the future. There is a lot of usage that's only known by Anthropic or OpenAI that's not visible to the rest of the world.
	▲	peddling-brink 2 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		> most people are just speedrunning notetaking apps in JavaScript frameworks. I feel seen. But seriously, my app, with my preferences, written by a semi-trustworthy entity that isn’t trying to shove ads down my throat. That’s really great.

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NewJazz 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Have you considered you are reading comments from different people?

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fatata123 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

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