18-20 million foldable phones were sold in 2025. About 10 million PS5 consoles were sold in that same period. So there's definitely a bit of interest.

Why does it have to be an all-or-nothing fight for the final smartphone form? Can't it just be a semi-niche product that some people buy?

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danpalmer 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I don't think this is a fair comparison, they are different markets – most people need a smartphone today, nobody really needs a PS5. A better comparison is to say that of smartphones sold in 2025 (~1.65bn), foldables represented ~1%. That's pretty niche.

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denkmoon 27 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

I think it's a great comparison, you don't buy an expensive folding phone if you just need a smartphone, it's a luxury good just like a PS5.

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CharlesW 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

That’s pre-Apple’s entry into the market, which will triple the size of the foldables market in the next 12-18 months. And cnsidering how bad foldables have been and how much better they’ll get, that’s surely not the ceiling.

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danpalmer an hour ago | parent [-]

Apple sold ~250m of those ~1.65bn, so if you work on it being Android only, then foldables are ~1.4% instead of ~1.1%.

For the foldable market to triple in size, Apple would need to sell 40m this year, which if we assume a flat year for overall numbers (likely given rising costs this cycle and the trend of flattening sales anyway), then it would mean the fold taking 16% of all iPhone sales. For a ~2500-3200 USD phone (base model, international pricing), that's not happening.

Why would you think foldables are about to get a lot better? They have improved over the last 10 years, but the original caveats are pretty much all still there, and the iPhone Duo doesn't appear to improve on any of them in any meaningful way.

	▲	Shank 35 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		> For the foldable market to triple in size, Apple would need to sell 40m this year For the record, it seems like the production will not get close to 40m phones this year. According to most outlets, it is backordered to January and Apple had to ramp production higher than anticipated. I highly doubt that it will literally 3x the market this year. But the pattern has been, excepting the Vision Pro, that when Apple enters a market, it suddenly proves the viability to other market entrants, and to the general public who view it as a mature market. > but the original caveats are pretty much all still there I don't think this is true at all. A significant portion of people complain about the crease, light reflections, and poor software. It seems like initial reviews don't find problems due to the "nano-texture" display (probably achievable in third-parties with a matte screen protector). As for software, once apps have been optimized for Duo, I expect that designs will carry over to similar form-factor folding devices on Android.

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cr125rider 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Some countries, like China, LOVE foldable phones. It’s fun to see how cultural it is.

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Gigachad 3 hours ago | parent [-]

From what I've gathered, China is much more in to mobile gaming and livestreaming than the rest of the world. Folding phones seem to appeal to those who primarily consume media on their phones, so it checks out they would want larger phones.

	▲	danpalmer 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I suspect this might be my blindspot. I use my phone a huge amount, but almost never for watching video or gaming. Being able to have a "full screen" video, and another app running "full screen", with the effectively 2x screen space, makes sense.

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radpanda 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Can't it just be a semi-niche product that some people buy?

As a fan of smaller smartphones (the likes of which aren’t made anymore), I thought the answer to this was supposedly a resounding no.

I mean, Apple sold millions of iPhones mini but we were told that wasn’t a viable product.

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2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

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