Solar panels (which continue get cheaper every year) on my house makes charging my low-TCO EV free in 5 years

If you make it easy for lots of people to make the fuel, yes. EVs and smaller scale power generation anyone?

That would likely require innovation in a renewable liquid fuel that can work at scale.

Electrification will drive the demand for oil down, making the overhead more expensive per gallon, and eventually we will largely move off of fossil fuels, though I don't expect completely. It will be many decades due to the turnover times for industrial/commercial transportation systems.

Yes if China somehow gets the fuel and subsidize it to sell it for cheaper in the global world, even the gulf state price will go down.

Tokens per second? That only really matters for things like chat and sessions where you are monitoring a session as it runs which is going to be an increasingly small percentage of usage. That's bottlenecked by human attention. Agents in the background, long running tasks, unattended tasks, all that stuff is what is even capable of driving significant usage because you can just increase consumption massively by parallelizing without being the bottleneck. I wouldn't be shocked if already the vast majority of token usage was from unattended sessions. TPS is not that important there

DeepSeek is serving more TPS than anyone, about as much as OpenRouter does in a week in a day, at 38$/H800/Ascend so about 900k/~90% profit over 3 years (or ~80s% profit including training expenses).

Meanwhile, Oracle is handing Tencent 100.000 GPUs at 1.60$ hour, dangerously close to breakeven...

What does this tell you?

Wait what, OpenAI is trustworthy now?

It won’t be a ban, it will be some “certified safe” badge from a federal agency. Companies will be scared into not using anything that is not “certified safe” and business insurance will even require it. Whoever (openAI or Anthropic) gets to the politicians first will be the only certified safe model provider.

Maybe the FDA is a good analogy, you wouldn’t want to buy meat at the store not FDA certified would you? OpenAI and Anthropic want you to feel the same about AI.

Not just models, won't be long before hardware is regulated too.

Sounds like an eventual Supreme Court case.

I do not expect an outright ban. (1) the bots are too useful, open is the way, re: HF handling the incident (2) you can train without certain capabilities, see Kimi K3.1 (3) reminiscent of the encryption is dangerous debate of the '90s

There will likely be requirements like registering with the government (China already does this, every business already does everywhere), certain usages require more or have deeper regulations (this is already done with most technologies, depending on application)