The number of students graduating high school peaked in 2025 and has now started a gradual decline. Colleges are essentially now playing a game of "musical chairs" competing for students and there aren't enough to go around. The elite institutions and cost-effective state schools will probably be fine but less exclusive private colleges without a solid value proposition have no clear path to survival.

https://www.wiche.edu/resources/report-u-s-high-school-gradu...

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JumpCrisscross 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> number of students graduating high school peaked in 2025 and has now started a gradual decline

Hasn’t this happened after each boom generation?

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Topology1 26 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

How do we know that was a peak? There's only been one more year of data

	▲	nradov 17 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		We have pretty accurate counts of numbers of babies born each year, and number of child immigrants. So that makes it straightforward to forecast the number of high school graduates. People are having fewer children.