https://globalelectionsimulator.com/brazil/

  Bolsonaro 52.26%
  Lula      47.74%

FWIW, these two datums aren't mutually exclusive.

If you have a high enough degree of certainty somebody could have a 99% chance of winning with an expected 50.1%/49.9% split. For the split to mean anything you need to know the confidence/variance.