Your argument falls apart pretty quickly when you consider that (1) open-weights model are a thing and (2) OpenAI and Anthropic are still losing money

1. If AI would bring great productivity but all that extra value is captured by closed-source model providers, then everyone would switch to open-weights models + bare metal servers, which would non-tech companies to capture most of the value. Your argument that there is great value in the use of AI, but it's all captured by OpenAI and Antrhopic falls flat on it's face here. The market would adapt quickly.

2. OpenAI and Anthropic are still losing money. Your argument is that 100$ of extra value is produced, but the closed-source model providers capture 99.9$ of that because they are "rent extractors". If you're right, and they capture 99.9 of the value created, that's a huge issue because they spend 150$ to create that value. If even after eating the whole (value creation) pie they're still unprofitable, that's the worst news for the AI industry.

I basically agree that both of your points are major-to-catastrophic problems for OpenAI and Anthropic. I suppose it is true that if the companies fall apart, then my argument also falls apart. I think I would be pretty pleased in that scenario, all things considered.

I thought you were gonna say "market forces"

OpenAi and anthropic hypothetically undercut each other.. each epsilon-ups one another until they get to a point where they're splitting the productivity gains with the other companies. If this doesn't happen, it's called collusion and the SEC initiates action. (Ha!)