True, it's a theory; basically a hypothesis derived from my experience with LLMs and their performance in CTFs/finding and exploiting vulnerabilities. Plausible, I believe, but I don't have any hard evidence of it happening.

Maybe the effort and required hardware of running an LLM locally have so far prevented widespread exploitation? Maybe open-weight LLMs are too far behind at the moment? Maybe it's happening but we didn't notice it for some reason?

I would strongly assume that it will happen at some point if it isn't already.

if is happening already, there would be stats to back it up. My brief 5 minutes of research suggests it is not.

in my experience AI is helping me defend against potential vulnerabilities, and so the net impact of these threats is net zero or less, even if I'm quite slow in patching stuff