DeepSeek can accomplish over 90% of tasks of equivalent value at one-tenth of the fully loaded cost of O/A, and this capability can further spread through open source. In my view, the IPO risk for O/A is no longer just a valuation discount, but a substantive challenge to its long-term business model as a high-margin foundation model provider.

In that scenario, even if global Token usage increases 100-fold in the future, that alone would not be enough to justify these foundation model companies being worth one or two trillion dollars.