Deepseeks strategy is that each project must break even within 10 months.

$38/hrs equals $320K in 10 months.

Assume they only have 100 clusters, and as much as 40% operational costs. That would get them about $20M in 10 months, which I suspect is more than what 4.1 flash training has cost them.

No, a cluster consists of 4x SM100, and $38 profit is per card, so after 10 months you already have $1.0 million.

I haven't accounted for 7 hours of peak-pricing per workday.

Of course, you won't have 100% utilization.

For four cards at 100% utilization it's $4712 per workday and $3648 per day on the weekends and holidays.

This is per card pricing, not per cluster pricing, so I think you’re off by an OOM or 2