I think 2x or 3x is maybe too generous. Obviously pure code output is extremely high but I would think for something to truly be a 2x a company would either have to be able to effectively get rid of half its SWE workforce or produce enough to make some notable increase in revenue.

It doesn't seem like the SWE labor market has been shedding anywhere near that order of magnitude of jobs (there are about 1.7 million SWEs in the USA alone) or that companies going heavy into AI are boosting revenue significantly.

I think all things considered we're only getting a single digit percentage total productivity increase.