I don't think this is avoidable even at the present day. Anyone with sufficient capital could download a leading open-source model and run it on ~$10-25K hardware. They could align it to their own interest, including making a biological weapon. This law is akin to blocking Torrent downloads. Sure, you can slow them, but there will always be back channels.

Current open weight models are 6 months behind on cyber offensive capabilities. We can use that as a proxy on other hazardous capabilities. Thats how much time we have until the genie is out of the bottle.

The bill may create an incentive for Chinese labs to nerf their open weight models before release. If that works we get another 6 months until unnerfed models leak to public.

Thats what the bill gives us - a few months months to come up with the next bandaid.

Torrents did not cost 10k+, and I think that distinction matters.

The bulk of AI users can pay $20/month for it, but not 10k+ up front. I agree frontier models will someday be dethroned, but today is not that day, and what the frontier companies do between now and then, legally still matters a great deal.

Piracy was similar, but it's trajectory was far more preditermined and unavoidable.

I think it's more akin to labeling encryption as munitions.