> majority of gold exports are going to Switzerland, almost certainly to the refiners there

Sounds like a refining bottleneck.

Globally, “refining capacity is operating at near-total utilization” [1]. That is particularly true in America, where refiners are “limiting purchases” [2] and “turning away new clients” [3].

Global demand for gold—lead by China—is surging. That, in turn, made gold “the most-developed commodity over 2020-25” with “the highest [new] mine count each year during the period” [4].

Where are those mines opening? In “Australia, Canada and the US,” which “accounted for the largest share of new gold production.”

[1] https://www.skillings.net/gold-refining-report-global-standa...

[2] https://www.jckonline.com/editorial-article/metal-refiners-t...

[3] https://www.jckonline.com/editorial-article/refining-pipelin...

[4] https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insight...

Huh. I'd have thought that capacity would rise with ore supply. It is "free money". Why leave it in the ground?

Sounds as if there is a point at which digging and refining is more expensive than buyers are willing to pay, so when demand goes up it takes time to expand supply.