It's a nice thought but so far none of the hyperscalers seem to give a single fuck about how much the cash costs to borrow.

If you believe that the upside is effectively unlimited because you automate most or all jobs in existence, then it is "rational" but silly valley rationality usually ignores things that are inconvenient. But if you truly believe the upside is unlimited, then rising interest rates won't scare you.

I think the issues are:

1) that timeline has to line up with the broader macroeconomic factors (unlikely imo)

2) anthropic/openai/etc have to actually capture the value (unlikely given deepseek/glm/etc)

3) for all jobs to be automated, there needs to be a huge shift in the social contract and welfare state, which requires competent and functioning government (lol) and taxes on destruction of labor rather than labor itself (lmao) otherwise you get millions of unemployed people and a deeply unstable society, and a lot of blown up datacenters.

I think the value of AI is unlike anything that has come before, I just don't think the big players will necessarily be the ones capturing it. There will be a lot of spectacular implosions over the next couple years, and AI will continue to march along.

It's because their datacenter businesses are growing so fast YoY. Why do you care about the difference in a few percentage points of interest if you're getting 37, 41, or even 82% returns YoY?