These are good points, though OP did specifically say that Meta is going to win "consumer" AI. I don't think the average consumer of AI is going to ever have to think about harnesses or worry about SOTA, they really will continue to interact with whatever is stickiest.

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itissid 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

This exactly. The "harness" for consumer is not well defined but likely quite sticky if someone can build one. Meta is better positioned with its reach of whatsapp etc unlike anyone to try this.

Meta being meta, will likely run this as an "experiment mode" for 6 months to an year and if it does not work scrap it all and move onto the next thing.

There is a risk ofc muse does not work. But there is a good chance that with the ridiculous number of product teams doing A/B testing with insane number of people already on it, something will emerge that is interesting in a way it never could for their erstwhile Ar/VR foray.

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theturtletalks an hour ago | parent [-]

The field is changing weekly at this point. Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic have the most distribution right now so any can take this spot.

So why would you lock yourself in? They want you to lock yourself in, but if you build your own system, you won’t be. A layman will just use what’s best and get himself locked in, but they might be using an inferior model.

AI is a force multiplier. Doing the right thing with the right expertise is yielding dividends.

	▲	itissid 15 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		> So why would you lock yourself in... Many people don't even know what locking in means. The crowd in this forum < 1% of the world do, you and I do, and maybe a few outside. There are only laymen outside of 99%. No one i know of knows or uses a harness. They don't know the large number of VMs built on say Hermes. They really don't care or have time. If you give them a ready made product thats a click away, and its good enough, they will use it.

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theturtletalks an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

But this is what I’m saying, consumer AI is forever changing. Investing your time and money into a closed harness will put you behind someone running their own system that’s model agnostic.

If you’re on a forum like HN, would you realisticly invest your time and widgets into a closed harness instead of building your own? What if Meta’s model falls behind and all your things are on there? My advice is to invest in building your own because no one lab has shown they are worth using.

As far as “consumer,” I’m simply comparing consumer AI to a custom built one. One of OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta will probably win since they have the most distribution.

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madars an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yep. Reminds me of the famous HN lore about Dropbox https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8863 (note the 4 digit ID - early days!)

>For a Linux user, you can already build such a system yourself quite trivially by getting an FTP account, mounting it locally with curlftpfs, and then using SVN or CVS on the mounted filesystem. From Windows or Mac, this FTP account could be accessed through built-in software.

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Bluestein an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

And, "stickiest", mind, where most are allready soul-sucked into the neverending doomscrolling dopamine nightmare that is Zuckbook - to beging with.-

First they "captured", or moated "communication". Now, they are going to capture "utility" ("I am actually doing something useful, not just doomscrolling. I can spend an extra 8h here. It feels good").-

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jimbokun an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

The "average consumer" is a very small part of the revenue opportunity for LLMs and AI.

The real money is coming from C-suites trying to reduce head count or at least multiply productivity for their existing head count.