Okay, how can we be certain even about that? It sounds just as plausible to me that the improvements will become asymptotic and boring, not exponential or inconceivable -- and how can we make any confident prediction at all about the heights these models will reach? The technology those heights require doesn't exist, and its existence isn't guaranteed, even if it is possible.

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qarl 6 hours ago | parent [-]

> how can we be certain

Certain of predictions? I think that's an unreasonable ask.

And I'm comfortable with my prediction. Rather than argue about it - let's wait a year and see what happens, and then we can discuss it.

	▲	globnomulous 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		> I think that's an unreasonable ask. Oh, good point! I misread your comment. Sorry for that! > Rather than argue about it - let's wait a year and see what happens, and then we can discuss it. Deal!