Disagree, there are in fact documented cases.

> I think I have been underrating the pace of model improvements. In March 2025 I made a bet with Tamay Besiroglu, cofounder of RL environment company Mechanize, that AI tools would not be able to autonomously produce papers I judge to be at a level comparable to that of the best few papers published in 2025, at comparable cost to human experts, by 2030. I gave him 3:1 odds at the time; I now expect to lose this bet.

https://www.daniellitt.com/blog/2026/2/20/mathematics-in-the...

“I’ve slowly updated my timelines over the past year…”

and

“I think I have been underrating the pace of model improvements. … I was not correctly calibrated as to the capabilities of existing models, let alone near-future models.”

Fair enough. But after the distinct distances result if you did not price it in, that's on you haha