>loads of people have historically done giant pivots at midlife

Lots of people didn't have their field automated away though alongside most other knowledge work fields, or seen at the same time a drop in demand in manual work and an oversupply (drop in demand because of upcoming AI layoffs, and oversupply in manual fields, because of same)

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tempest_ 17 hours ago | parent [-]

Everyone can't be a plumber.

In fact one of the worst "trade offs" of the trades is they can very much be a young mans game.

It gets real hard to sling water heaters up/down tight stairs or pull cable in a 100+ degree attic into your 50s.

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darth_avocado 16 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Everyone can't be a plumber.

Yes, but not for the reasons you say. It’s because if everyone is a plumber, you don’t need plumbers.

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auyez 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Also I imagine a lot of demand for plumbers might drop because AI might help you to learn to solve easy cases. Imagine you turn on you camera and it would just tell you what to do exactly.

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fodkodrasz 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I have just called a plumber to do a leaking radiator replacement. Not because I don't have the tools or I don't have YouTube, but because I didn't want to do it.

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coldtea 8 hours ago | parent [-]

That was always true if you could afford it.

But get a little more squeezed and with less salary due to AI eliminating your job or your field's salary bargaining power, and you'll try to not call one if you can avoid it, even if you don't want to do it yourself.

	▲	fodkodrasz 4 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Currently AI made me way more work and unpaid over hours already buy sorting out the 10x expectations and the slop grenades by the 10x workers, that is why i needed it... so I can't even have this much feeling of having accomplished anything myself. I'm not sure how this will work out. Burnout will be standard, and almost universal soon, apart from the previous low-performer, low skilled bottom of barrel folks who will mass produce crap with this.

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dranudin 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Yes, buuut: I think we are already really close to that for a long time. You could learn a lot just from internet and youtube. But most people, I feel, just do not like to neither do plumbing/diy nor learn about it. Like if I tell people they can save hundreds of € by changing their own brake pads and that it is really easy to diy, they just shrug and go to the mechanic. So I am not sure if AI will really increase the percentage of people willing to learn these skills and do repairs etc

	▲	cucumber3732842 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Yeah the information has been available for awhile. What stops people is all the indoctrination and conditioning. "I'm not allowed to replace my water heater, the government says I need permits, the government says only a plumber can connect a gas line" I don't think people realize that the people doing entry level skilled work like replacing your water heater or swapping your brakes at jiffy lube often only exceed the caliber of labor that's in a McDonalds when it comes to attendance and pissing clean.

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bitwize 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

That'll be Wario's arc in the next Super Mario movie.

"...And when everyone's a plumber... no one will be!"

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taneq 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Get the young guys to do the lifting, there’s still plenty of room for old guys with experience who know all the tips, tricks and gotchyas.

Edit: Fair point, you don’t want to be entering a trade which requires heavy lifting as an older guy with no experience.

	▲	drivebyhooting 14 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		If you are 40 making a career change you have no experience tips or tricks.
	▲	phoghed 14 hours ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		When you lose your white collar job to AI you don’t have those tips, tricks, and gotchas for whatever work is left for you.
	▲	JDups 14 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		To be an old guy with experience you need to start as a young guy.